NCAA Tournament - Regionals Predictions


Each regional is simulated 100,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the regional.
National Seed in parentheses
* if necessary

Los Angeles

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(1) UCLA (4-1) 64.8% 87.7% 46.7% 67.0%
Baylor (1-2) 25.3% 5.1% 15.4% ---
Loyola-Marymount (2-2) 5.8% 6.5% 37.9% 33.0%
Omaha (0-2) 4.1% 0.8% --- ---

Nashville

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(2) Vanderbilt (3-0) 74.5% 78.7% 96.8%
Indiana State (2-2) 18.4% 20.3% 3.1% ---
McNeese State (0-2) 5.5% 0.8% --- ---
Ohio State (1-2) 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% ---

Corvallis

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
Oregon State (0-2) 40.0% 16.0% --- ---
Creighton (3-2) 22.0% 5.7% 14.2% 46.0%
Michigan (3-1) 34.8% 63.0% 83.5% 54.0%
Cincinnati (1-2) 3.2% 15.3% 2.3% ---

Morgantown

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
West Virginia (1-2) 40.8% 57.1% 19.6% ---
Texas A&M (2-2) 29.6% 9.4% 13.3% ---
Duke (3-0) 22.0% 32.5% 67.1%
Fordham (0-2) 7.7% 0.9% --- ---

Oklahoma City

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
Oklahoma State (3-1) 54.5% 76.5% 92.7% 58.0%
Connecticut (3-2) 13.6% 2.8% 3.2% 42.0%
Nebraska (1-2) 13.4% 17.0% 4.1% ---
Harvard (0-2) 18.5% 3.7% --- ---

Greenville

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
East Carolina (4-1) 40.8% 15.4% 26.1% 54.0%
NC State (0-2) 30.5% 10.6% --- ---
Campbell (2-2) 24.6% 54.3% 71.1% 46.0%
Quinnipiac (1-2) 4.1% 19.7% 2.8% ---

Lubbock

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(8) Texas Tech (3-0) 46.4% 53.9% 88.9%
Dallas Baptist (2-2) 32.7% 44.2% 8.6% ---
Florida (1-2) 9.7% 1.1% 2.6% ---
Army (0-2) 11.2% 0.8% --- ---

Louisville

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(7) Louisville (4-1) 55.4% 77.9% 33.7% 61.0%
Indiana (1-2) 24.4% 6.0% 16.7% ---
Illinois State (2-2) 9.4% 14.5% 49.6% 39.0%
UIC (0-2) 10.7% 1.5% --- ---

Fayetteville

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(5) Arkansas (3-0) 57.1% 77.6% 95.1%
California (0-2) 22.9% 5.5% --- ---
TCU (2-2) 16.7% 16.6% 3.9% ---
Central Connecticut (1-2) 3.3% 0.3% 1.1% ---

Starkville

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(6) Mississippi State (3-0) 57.8% 72.6% 92.5%
Miami (FL) (2-2) 14.4% 2.6% 1.7% ---
Central Michigan (1-2) 26.2% 24.7% 5.8% ---
Southern (0-2) 1.6% 0.1% --- ---

Oxford

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
Ole Miss (3-0) 48.8% 69.3% 90.6%
Illinois (0-2) 13.2% 2.5% --- ---
Clemson (1-2) 16.3% 24.2% 3.6% ---
Jacksonville State (2-2) 21.7% 4.0% 5.8% ---

Stanford

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
Stanford (4-1) 34.2% 64.7% 33.0% 58.0%
UC Santa Barbara (0-2) 28.9% 9.0% --- ---
Fresno State (2-2) 31.1% 25.1% 64.0% 42.0%
Sacramento State (1-2) 5.9% 1.1% 3.0% ---

Baton Rouge

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
LSU (3-0) 44.6% 68.1% 88.2%
Arizona State (1-2) 30.2% 8.2% 7.5% ---
Southern Miss (2-2) 19.0% 22.7% 4.3% ---
Stony Brook (0-2) 6.2% 0.9% --- ---

Chapel Hill

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
North Carolina (3-0) 40.5% 57.8% 84.9%
Tennessee (2-2) 29.9% 9.6% 8.1% ---
Liberty (1-2) 23.2% 32.0% 7.0% ---
UNCW (0-2) 6.4% 0.6% --- ---

Athens

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(4) Georgia (2-2) 58.1% 70.7% 31.2% ---
FAU (1-2) 14.1% 3.0% 5.4% ---
Florida State (3-0) 20.6% 25.6% 63.3%
Mercer (0-2) 7.3% 0.7% --- ---

Atlanta

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4*
(3) Georgia Tech (2-2) 53.5% 64.7% 12.7% ---
Auburn (3-0) 16.1% 29.8% 75.4%
Coastal Carolina (1-2) 28.1% 5.4% 11.9% ---
Florida A&M (0-2) 2.3% 0.1% --- ---