Pythagorean Expectation

Records include games against Division I opponents only.

Pythagorean Expectation uses a team's points scored and points allowed to estimate how many games the team should have won and lost to date (Pythag Record).
Good Luck is shown when a team's actual wins exceed expected wins by two or more.
Bad Luck is shown when a team's actual wins are two or less than its expected wins.
Pythag Final Record is a prediction of a team's final record based on their current Pytahgorean Expectation.

Team Points Scored Points Allowed Pythag Win Pct Pythag Record Actual Record Luck Pythag Final Record
Abilene Christian 290 272 0.5400 5 - 5 5 - 5 - 5 - 5
Alabama A&M 273 256 0.5401 5 - 5 5 - 5 - 5 - 5
Alabama State 112 363 0.0502 0 - 9 2 - 7 +2 1 - 9
Albany 232 337 0.2822 3 - 8 3 - 8 - 3 - 8
Alcorn State 289 227 0.6465 6 - 4 7 - 3 - 6 - 4
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 193 441 0.1125 1 - 8 1 - 8 - 1 - 8
Austin Peay 340 337 0.5055 6 - 5 5 - 6 - 6 - 5
Bethune-Cookman 280 349 0.3657 4 - 7 6 - 5 +2 4 - 7
Brown 143 362 0.0893 1 - 9 1 - 9 - 1 - 9
Bryant 316 415 0.3360 3 - 7 5 - 5 +2 3 - 7
Bucknell 147 311 0.1331 1 - 10 1 - 10 - 1 - 10
Butler 228 355 0.2484 2 - 8 3 - 7 - 2 - 8
Cal Poly 315 400 0.3550 4 - 7 5 - 6 - 4 - 7
Campbell 182 216 0.3946 4 - 5 4 - 5 - 4 - 5
Central Arkansas 336 287 0.5973 7 - 4 6 - 5 - 7 - 4
Central Connecticut 317 280 0.5770 6 - 4 5 - 5 - 6 - 4
Charleston Southern 161 210 0.3398 3 - 6 4 - 5 - 3 - 7
Chattanooga 236 231 0.5134 6 - 5 6 - 5 - 6 - 5
Colgate 301 57 0.9846 10 - 0 9 - 1 - 10 - 0
Columbia 231 252 0.4458 4 - 6 6 - 4 +2 4 - 6
Cornell 191 297 0.2491 2 - 8 3 - 7 - 2 - 8
Dartmouth 340 120 0.9311 9 - 1 9 - 1 - 9 - 1
Davidson 320 347 0.4495 4 - 4 3 - 5 - 4 - 4
Dayton 394 287 0.6883 8 - 3 6 - 5 -2 8 - 3
Delaware 287 238 0.6149 7 - 4 7 - 4 - 7 - 5
Delaware State 143 362 0.0893 1 - 9 2 - 8 - 1 - 9
Drake 250 171 0.7210 6 - 3 6 - 3 - 6 - 3
Duquesne 298 302 0.4917 5 - 5 7 - 3 +2 5 - 6
East Tennessee State 257 276 0.4555 5 - 5 7 - 3 +2 5 - 6
Eastern Illinois 357 445 0.3657 4 - 7 3 - 8 - 4 - 7
Eastern Kentucky 296 316 0.4592 5 - 6 7 - 4 +2 5 - 6
Eastern Washington 439 220 0.8491 8 - 2 8 - 2 - 8 - 2
Elon 261 241 0.5497 5 - 5 6 - 4 - 6 - 5
Florida A&M 249 236 0.5335 5 - 5 5 - 5 - 5 - 5
Fordham 174 310 0.1910 2 - 9 2 - 9 - 2 - 9
Furman 272 282 0.4774 5 - 5 6 - 4 - 5 - 5
Gardner-Webb 169 390 0.1100 1 - 9 2 - 8 - 1 - 9
Georgetown 172 232 0.3212 4 - 7 5 - 6 - 4 - 7
Grambling 232 232 0.5000 5 - 4 5 - 4 - 5 - 5
Hampton 120 210 0.1980 1 - 4 2 - 3 - 1 - 4
Harvard 304 218 0.6966 7 - 3 6 - 4 - 7 - 3
Holy Cross 268 286 0.4595 5 - 6 5 - 6 - 5 - 6
Houston Baptist 252 474 0.1709 2 - 8 0 - 10 -2 2 - 8
Howard 336 341 0.4908 5 - 5 4 - 6 - 5 - 5
Idaho 218 402 0.1780 2 - 8 3 - 7 - 2 - 8
Idaho State 343 353 0.4820 5 - 5 5 - 5 - 5 - 5
Illinois State 304 220 0.6918 7 - 3 5 - 5 -2 7 - 3
Incarnate Word 343 340 0.5055 5 - 5 6 - 4 - 6 - 6
Indiana State 300 310 0.4795 5 - 5 6 - 4 - 5 - 5
Jackson State 165 245 0.2713 3 - 7 5 - 5 +2 3 - 7
Jacksonville 221 373 0.2127 2 - 7 1 - 8 - 2 - 7
Jacksonville State 459 241 0.8335 9 - 2 8 - 3 - 10 - 2
James Madison 401 161 0.9073 10 - 1 8 - 3 -2 11 - 1
Kennesaw State 465 150 0.9442 9 - 1 9 - 1 - 9 - 1
Lafayette 143 323 0.1154 1 - 10 3 - 8 +2 1 - 10
Lamar 288 317 0.4403 4 - 6 6 - 4 +2 5 - 6
Lehigh 183 386 0.1340 1 - 10 3 - 8 +2 1 - 10
Maine 274 232 0.6025 7 - 4 8 - 3 - 7 - 4
Marist 282 293 0.4761 5 - 6 5 - 6 - 5 - 6
McNeese State 229 266 0.4075 4 - 7 6 - 5 +2 4 - 7
Mercer 337 357 0.4640 5 - 6 5 - 6 - 5 - 6
Mississippi Valley State 195 435 0.1186 1 - 9 1 - 9 - 1 - 10
Missouri State 201 372 0.1767 2 - 8 3 - 7 - 2 - 8
Monmouth 365 347 0.5316 6 - 5 8 - 3 +2 6 - 5
Montana 373 314 0.6060 7 - 4 6 - 5 - 7 - 4
Montana State 325 304 0.5417 6 - 5 7 - 4 - 7 - 5
Morehead State 255 456 0.1895 2 - 8 2 - 8 - 2 - 8
Morgan State 206 282 0.3132 3 - 8 4 - 7 - 3 - 8
Murray State 307 384 0.3637 4 - 7 5 - 6 - 4 - 7
New Hampshire 196 251 0.3502 4 - 7 4 - 7 - 4 - 7
Nicholls State 350 212 0.7779 9 - 2 8 - 3 - 9 - 3
Norfolk State 156 235 0.2642 2 - 7 3 - 6 - 3 - 7
North Alabama 97 125 0.3466 2 - 3 3 - 2 - 2 - 3
North Carolina A&T 337 148 0.8867 10 - 1 9 - 2 - 10 - 1
North Carolina Central 172 280 0.2282 2 - 6 3 - 5 - 2 - 7
North Dakota 293 249 0.6003 7 - 4 6 - 5 - 7 - 4
North Dakota State 453 134 0.9546 11 - 0 11 - 0 - 11 - 0
Northern Arizona 258 322 0.3649 4 - 6 4 - 6 - 4 - 6
Northern Colorado 262 391 0.2688 3 - 8 2 - 9 - 3 - 8
Northern Iowa 301 241 0.6355 7 - 4 6 - 5 - 8 - 4
Northwestern State 312 380 0.3792 4 - 7 5 - 6 - 4 - 7
Penn 186 209 0.4276 4 - 6 6 - 4 +2 4 - 6
Portland State 239 384 0.2341 2 - 8 3 - 7 - 2 - 8
Prairie View A&M 296 290 0.5128 5 - 5 3 - 7 -2 6 - 5
Presbyterian College 91 286 0.0540 0 - 8 0 - 8 - 0 - 8
Princeton 470 130 0.9613 10 - 0 10 - 0 - 10 - 0
Rhode Island 333 310 0.5446 6 - 5 6 - 5 - 6 - 5
Richmond 243 359 0.2738 3 - 8 4 - 7 - 3 - 8
Robert Morris 200 414 0.1396 1 - 8 0 - 9 - 1 - 8
Sacramento State 186 347 0.1738 2 - 7 1 - 8 - 2 - 7
Sacred Heart 309 243 0.6458 7 - 4 7 - 4 - 7 - 4
Saint Francis (PA) 229 219 0.5279 5 - 5 3 - 7 -2 5 - 5
Sam Houston State 330 309 0.5410 6 - 5 6 - 5 - 6 - 5
Samford 357 281 0.6453 6 - 4 5 - 5 - 6 - 4
San Diego 386 292 0.6677 7 - 3 8 - 2 - 7 - 4
Savannah State 134 293 0.1239 1 - 9 2 - 8 - 1 - 9
South Carolina State 198 247 0.3652 4 - 6 5 - 5 - 4 - 7
South Dakota 294 376 0.3509 4 - 7 4 - 7 - 4 - 7
South Dakota State 454 223 0.8554 9 - 1 8 - 2 - 9 - 1
Southeast Missouri 431 341 0.6423 7 - 4 8 - 3 - 8 - 4
Southeastern Louisiana 281 369 0.3360 4 - 7 4 - 7 - 4 - 7
Southern 212 194 0.5552 4 - 4 5 - 3 - 5 - 4
Southern Illinois 331 448 0.3194 4 - 7 2 - 9 -2 4 - 7
Southern Utah 281 456 0.2296 3 - 8 1 - 10 -2 3 - 8
Stephen F. Austin 181 333 0.1789 2 - 8 2 - 8 - 2 - 8
Stetson 262 255 0.5169 4 - 4 6 - 2 +2 4 - 4
Stony Brook 308 216 0.7083 8 - 3 7 - 4 - 8 - 4
Tennessee State 264 289 0.4437 4 - 5 4 - 5 - 4 - 5
Tennessee Tech 198 507 0.0870 1 - 10 1 - 10 - 1 - 10
Tennessee-Martin 318 378 0.3936 4 - 7 2 - 9 -2 4 - 7
Texas Southern 171 289 0.2122 2 - 7 1 - 8 - 2 - 8
The Citadel 285 319 0.4300 4 - 6 4 - 6 - 5 - 6
Towson 404 315 0.6507 7 - 4 7 - 4 - 8 - 4
UC Davis 464 306 0.7390 8 - 3 9 - 2 - 8 - 3
Valparaiso 270 358 0.3306 3 - 7 2 - 8 - 3 - 7
Villanova 275 257 0.5422 6 - 5 5 - 6 - 6 - 5
VMI 237 519 0.1235 1 - 9 0 - 10 - 1 - 9
Wagner 268 414 0.2521 3 - 7 3 - 7 - 3 - 7
Weber State 296 229 0.6551 7 - 4 9 - 2 +2 7 - 4
Western Carolina 314 425 0.3194 3 - 7 2 - 8 - 3 - 7
Western Illinois 263 286 0.4478 5 - 6 5 - 6 - 5 - 6
William & Mary 136 262 0.1626 2 - 8 4 - 6 +2 2 - 8
Wofford 356 227 0.7549 8 - 3 8 - 3 - 9 - 3
Yale 295 285 0.5215 5 - 5 5 - 5 - 5 - 5
Youngstown State 254 299 0.3994 4 - 7 4 - 7 - 4 - 7