Pythagorean Expectation
Records include games against Division I opponents only.

Pythagorean Expectation uses a team's points scored and points allowed to estimate how many games the team should have won and lost to date.
Good Luck is shown when a team's actual wins exceed expected wins by two or more.
Bad Luck is shown when a team's actual wins are two or less than its expected wins.
  Points Pythagorean Overall Conference Predicted
Team Scored Allowed Expectation Record Pythag Luck Record Pythag Luck Record Conf Record
Abilene Christian 65 68 0.4718 1 - 1 1 - +1 1 - 0 0 - 1 5 - 5 4 - 5
Alabama A&M 27 88 0.0496 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 8
Alabama State 22 125 0.0128 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 7
Albany 63 105 0.2181 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 1 0 - 1 2 - 9 2 - 6
Alcorn State 27 56 0.1390 1 - 1 0 - +2 1 - 0 0 - 1 1 - 9 1 - 7
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 6 90 0.0011 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 9 0 - 7
Austin Peay 102 85 0.6120 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 4 5 - 3
Bethune-Cookman 31 83 0.0786 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 1 - 6
Brown 32 75 0.1063 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 9 1 - 6
Bryant 58 77 0.3300 1 - 1 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 7 2 - 4
Bucknell 38 78 0.1421 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 1 - 5
Butler 30 71 0.1040 1 - 1 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 1 - 7
Cal Poly 64 88 0.3109 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 1 0 - 1 3 - 8 3 - 6
Campbell 34 66 0.1600 1 - 1 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 8 1 - 4
Central Arkansas 86 76 0.5766 2 - 1 2 - +1 1 - 0 1 - 0 6 - 5 5 - 4
Central Connecticut 30 83 0.0728 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 0 - 6
Charleston Southern 6 53 0.0043 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 5
Chattanooga 97 62 0.7538 3 - 0 2 - +1 1 - 0 1 - 0 8 - 3 6 - 2
Colgate 34 20 0.7903 2 - 0 2 - +0 1 - 0 1 - 0 8 - 2 5 - 1
Columbia 41 24 0.7923 1 - 0 1 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 2 6 - 1
Cornell 10 27 0.0770 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 1 - 6
Dartmouth 41 0 1 1 - 0 1 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 0 7 - 0
Davidson 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 8 0 - 8
Dayton 96 99 0.4808 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 6 4 - 4
Delaware 83 31 0.9214 2 - 1 3 - +0 0 - 1 1 - 0 10 - 1 7 - 1
Delaware State 24 161 0.0085 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 7
Drake 16 48 0.0603 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 8 0 - 8
Duquesne 69 110 0.2376 2 - 1 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 8 1 - 5
East Tennessee State 30 83 0.0728 1 - 1 0 - +2 1 - 0 0 - 1 1 - 9 1 - 7
Eastern Illinois 71 158 0.1192 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 10 1 - 7
Eastern Kentucky 100 97 0.5190 1 - 2 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 5 4 - 3
Eastern Washington 55 85 0.2519 1 - 1 1 - +1 1 - 0 0 - 1 3 - 7 2 - 7
Elon 59 41 0.7130 1 - 1 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 3 6 - 2
Florida A&M 23 77 0.0465 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 8
Fordham 23 114 0.0180 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 11 0 - 6
Furman 14 93 0.0087 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 8
Gardner-Webb 16 73 0.0220 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 5
Georgetown 47 68 0.2843 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 2 - 4
Grambling 24 83 0.0430 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 8
Hampton 28 56 0.1502 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 4 0 - 0
Harvard 67 31 0.8729 2 - 0 2 - +0 1 - 0 1 - 0 9 - 1 6 - 1
Holy Cross 62 114 0.1791 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 1 0 - 1 2 - 9 1 - 5
Houston Baptist 47 89 0.1685 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 2 0 - 2 2 - 8 2 - 7
Howard 46 92 0.1502 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 1 - 7
Idaho 13 79 0.0109 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 7
Idaho State 23 45 0.1574 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 8 1 - 6
Illinois State 48 10 0.9806 1 - 0 1 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 0 8 - 0
Incarnate Word 77 127 0.2225 1 - 2 1 - +2 1 - 0 0 - 1 2 - 9 2 - 6
Indiana State 62 72 0.4076 1 - 1 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 6 3 - 5
Jackson State 25 71 0.0685 1 - 1 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 0 - 7
Jacksonville 3 45 0.0011 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 9 0 - 8
Jacksonville State 88 20 0.9760 1 - 1 2 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 0 8 - 0
James Madison 103 31 0.9527 2 - 1 3 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 1 8 - 0
Kennesaw State 131 47 0.9284 2 - 1 3 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 1 5 - 0
Lafayette 26 96 0.0368 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 11 0 - 6
Lamar 48 126 0.0822 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 9 1 - 8
Lehigh 51 101 0.1534 1 - 2 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 1 - 5
Maine 66 35 0.8300 2 - 0 2 - +0 1 - 0 1 - 0 9 - 2 7 - 1
Marist 41 76 0.1761 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 1 - 7
McNeese State 88 58 0.7393 3 - 0 2 - +1 2 - 0 1 - 1 8 - 3 7 - 2
Mercer 89 93 0.4726 2 - 1 1 - +2 1 - 0 0 - 1 5 - 6 4 - 4
Mississippi Valley State 7 106 0.0011 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 11 0 - 7
Missouri State 57 66 0.4094 1 - 1 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 6 3 - 5
Monmouth 97 99 0.4872 2 - 1 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 6 2 - 3
Montana 101 70 0.7143 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 3 5 - 2
Montana State 87 92 0.4651 2 - 1 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 6 4 - 4
Morehead State 63 127 0.1477 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 1 - 7
Morgan State 44 107 0.0978 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 10 1 - 7
Murray State 33 123 0.0359 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 11 0 - 8
New Hampshire 24 90 0.0354 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 11 0 - 8
Nicholls State 53 85 0.2349 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 1 0 - 1 3 - 8 2 - 7
Norfolk State 0 17 0 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 8
North Alabama 66 88 0.3276 2 - 1 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 4 0 - 0
North Carolina A&T 93 46 0.8532 3 - 0 3 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 2 7 - 1
North Carolina Central 31 28 0.5633 1 - 0 1 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 4 4 - 3
North Dakota 62 75 0.3832 2 - 1 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 7 0 - 0
North Dakota State 87 10 0.9955 2 - 0 2 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 0 8 - 0
Northern Arizona 64 81 0.3569 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 1 0 - 1 4 - 7 3 - 5
Northern Colorado 67 88 0.3359 0 - 3 1 - +2 0 - 1 0 - 1 4 - 7 3 - 5
Northern Iowa 37 64 0.2026 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 2 - 6
Northwestern State 90 114 0.3564 2 - 1 1 - +2 1 - 0 0 - 1 4 - 7 3 - 6
Penn 34 17 0.8498 1 - 0 1 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 2 6 - 1
Portland State 33 134 0.0292 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 7
Prairie View A&M 105 149 0.2942 0 - 4 1 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 2 - 5
Presbyterian College 0 24 0 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 8 0 - 5
Princeton 50 7 0.9927 1 - 0 1 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 0 7 - 0
Rhode Island 115 101 0.5804 2 - 1 2 - +1 2 - 0 1 - 1 6 - 5 5 - 3
Richmond 100 76 0.6651 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 4 5 - 3
Robert Morris 35 122 0.0422 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 9 0 - 6
Sacramento State 42 53 0.3586 1 - 1 1 - +1 1 - 0 0 - 1 4 - 6 3 - 5
Sacred Heart 65 20 0.9501 2 - 0 2 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 1 6 - 0
Saint Francis (PA) 91 70 0.6583 1 - 2 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 3 4 - 2
Sam Houston State 64 56 0.5827 1 - 1 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 5 5 - 4
Samford 50 66 0.3331 0 - 2 1 - +1 0 - 1 0 - 1 3 - 7 3 - 5
San Diego 35 90 0.0862 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 1 - 7
Savannah State 0 129 0 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 11 0 - 8
South Carolina State 6 75 0.0018 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 11 0 - 9
South Dakota 77 82 0.4608 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 6 4 - 4
South Dakota State 135 20 0.9916 2 - 0 2 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 0 8 - 0
Southeast Missouri 109 113 0.4775 2 - 1 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 6 4 - 4
Southeastern Louisiana 56 98 0.1980 0 - 3 1 - +2 0 - 1 0 - 1 2 - 9 2 - 7
Southern 24 109 0.0222 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 9 0 - 7
Southern Illinois 134 134 0.5000 1 - 2 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 5 4 - 4
Southern Utah 86 144 0.2161 0 - 3 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 2 - 6
Stephen F. Austin 13 94 0.0071 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 10 0 - 9
Stetson 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 8 0 - 8
Stony Brook 78 65 0.6120 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 4 5 - 3
Tennessee State 34 3 0.9977 1 - 0 1 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 0 7 - 0
Tennessee Tech 32 156 0.0187 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 11 0 - 8
Tennessee-Martin 75 146 0.1591 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 1 - 7
Texas Southern 35 63 0.1870 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 1 0 - 1 2 - 8 1 - 7
The Citadel 49 57 0.4066 0 - 2 1 - +1 0 - 2 1 - 1 4 - 7 3 - 5
Towson 101 96 0.5317 2 - 1 2 - +1 1 - 0 1 - 0 6 - 5 4 - 4
UC Davis 108 89 0.6186 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 4 5 - 3
Valparaiso 28 65 0.1086 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 1 - 7
Villanova 85 71 0.6106 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 1 1 - 0 7 - 4 5 - 3
VMI 41 152 0.0364 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 10 0 - 8
Wagner 34 109 0.0515 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 0 - 6
Weber State 61 68 0.4325 2 - 1 1 - +2 1 - 0 0 - 1 5 - 6 3 - 5
Western Carolina 28 10 0.9292 1 - 0 1 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 1 7 - 1
Western Illinois 68 87 0.3507 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 7 3 - 5
William & Mary 31 69 0.1192 1 - 1 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 10 1 - 7
Wofford 101 52 0.8402 2 - 1 3 - +0 2 - 0 2 - 0 9 - 2 7 - 1
Yale 28 31 0.4367 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 6 3 - 4
Youngstown State 80 82 0.4846 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 6 4 - 4