Pythagorean Expectation
Records include games against Division I opponents only.

Pythagorean Expectation uses a team's points scored and points allowed to estimate how many games the team should have won and lost to date.
Good Luck is shown when a team's actual wins exceed expected wins by two or more.
Bad Luck is shown when a team's actual wins are two or less than its expected wins.
  Points Pythagorean Overall Conference Predicted
Team Scored Allowed Expectation Record Pythag Luck Record Pythag Luck Record Conf Record
Abilene Christian 48 79 0.2235 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 0 - 0
Alabama A&M 7 125 0.0007 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 0
Alabama State 21 54 0.0862 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 8 0 - 0
Albany 71 45 0.7577 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 3 0 - 0
Alcorn State 37 51 0.3095 0 - 2 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 7 0 - 0
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 6 100 0.0009 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 9 0 - 0
Austin Peay 93 70 0.6705 1 - 2 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 4 0 - 0
Bethune-Cookman 41 109 0.0798 1 - 2 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 10 0 - 0
Brown 28 23 0.6205 1 - 0 1 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 4 0 - 0
Bryant 35 88 0.0907 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 0 - 0
Bucknell 54 56 0.4773 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 6 0 - 0
Butler 0 45 0 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 9 0 - 0
Cal Poly 65 99 0.2589 0 - 3 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 0 - 0
Campbell 26 44 0.2116 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 8 0 - 0
Central Arkansas 98 74 0.6687 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 4 0 - 0
Central Connecticut 47 147 0.0546 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 0 - 0
Charleston Southern 17 68 0.0303 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 9 0 - 0
Chattanooga 30 93 0.0558 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 10 0 - 0
Colgate 47 67 0.2919 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 0 - 0
Columbia 17 14 0.6190 1 - 0 1 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 4 0 - 0
Cornell 14 41 0.0638 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 0 - 0
Dartmouth 38 7 0.9856 1 - 0 1 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 0 0 - 0
Davidson 17 63 0.0364 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 9 0 - 0
Dayton 58 64 0.4388 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 6 0 - 0
Delaware 63 44 0.7104 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 3 0 - 0
Delaware State 34 109 0.0515 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 10 0 - 0
Drake 17 128 0.0064 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 0
Duquesne 86 114 0.3308 2 - 1 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 7 0 - 0
East Tennessee State 35 83 0.1035 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 0 - 0
Eastern Illinois 45 102 0.1145 1 - 2 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 10 0 - 0
Eastern Kentucky 33 58 0.1963 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 0 - 0
Eastern Washington 79 117 0.2725 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 0 - 0
Elon 66 95 0.2869 2 - 1 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 0 - 0
Florida A&M 49 80 0.2270 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 0 - 0
Fordham 65 151 0.1084 1 - 2 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 10 0 - 0
Furman 70 107 0.2572 0 - 3 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 0 - 0
Gardner-Webb 30 114 0.0343 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 0
Georgetown 28 24 0.5952 1 - 1 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 4 0 - 0
Grambling 73 74 0.4915 2 - 1 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 5 0 - 0
Hampton 28 74 0.0809 1 - 1 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 0 - 0
Harvard 10 17 0.2097 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 8 0 - 0
Holy Cross 91 53 0.7944 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 2 0 - 0
Houston Baptist 38 61 0.2345 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 0 - 0
Howard 95 146 0.2546 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 0 - 0
Idaho State 43 79 0.1794 1 - 1 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 8 0 - 0
Illinois State 89 13 0.9919 2 - 0 2 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 0 0 - 0
Incarnate Word 53 159 0.0603 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 10 0 - 0
Indiana State 68 106 0.2479 0 - 3 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 0 - 0
Jackson State 36 116 0.0509 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 0 - 0
Jacksonville 7 48 0.0081 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 9 0 - 0
Jacksonville State 37 50 0.3202 1 - 1 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 7 0 - 0
James Madison 161 38 0.9736 3 - 0 3 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 0 0 - 0
Kennesaw State 70 56 0.6360 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 4 0 - 0
Lafayette 36 128 0.0403 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 11 0 - 0
Lamar 42 94 0.1177 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 0 - 0
Lehigh 90 140 0.2489 0 - 3 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 0 - 0
Liberty 148 103 0.7122 3 - 0 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 3 0 - 0
Maine 83 36 0.8898 1 - 1 2 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 1 0 - 0
Marist 58 74 0.3523 2 - 1 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 7 0 - 0
McNeese State 69 64 0.5469 1 - 1 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 5 0 - 0
Mercer 85 59 0.7136 1 - 2 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 3 0 - 0
Mississippi Valley State 10 127 0.0017 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 0
Missouri State 71 127 0.1894 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 0 - 0
Monmouth 91 67 0.6825 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 3 0 - 0
Montana 108 89 0.6186 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 4 0 - 0
Montana State 27 62 0.1112 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 10 0 - 0
Morehead State 30 127 0.0264 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 0
Morgan State 0 101 0 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 11 0 - 0
Murray State 34 69 0.1456 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 0 - 0
New Hampshire 72 86 0.3907 2 - 1 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 7 0 - 0
Nicholls State 95 72 0.6666 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 4 0 - 0
Norfolk State 20 95 0.0199 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 0
North Carolina A&T 80 34 0.8947 2 - 0 2 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 1 0 - 0
North Carolina Central 7 60 0.0046 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 0
North Dakota 57 82 0.2872 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 0 - 0
North Dakota State 112 20 0.9867 2 - 0 2 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 0 0 - 0
Northern Arizona 44 100 0.1138 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 10 0 - 0
Northern Colorado 21 41 0.1581 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 8 0 - 0
Northern Iowa 90 104 0.4106 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 6 0 - 0
Northwestern State 69 103 0.2686 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 0 - 0
Penn 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 9 0 - 0
Portland State 52 92 0.1937 0 - 3 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 0 - 0
Prairie View A&M 44 88 0.1502 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 8 0 - 0
Presbyterian College 42 115 0.0746 1 - 2 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 0 - 0
Princeton 27 17 0.7607 1 - 0 1 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 2 0 - 0
Rhode Island 62 75 0.3832 1 - 2 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 7 0 - 0
Richmond 122 86 0.7056 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 3 0 - 0
Robert Morris 36 40 0.4345 2 - 1 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 6 0 - 0
Sacramento State 86 81 0.5374 1 - 2 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 5 0 - 0
Sacred Heart 87 72 0.6161 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 4 0 - 0
Saint Francis (PA) 45 22 0.8568 1 - 1 2 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 1 0 - 0
Sam Houston State 92 65 0.7044 2 - 0 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 3 0 - 0
Samford 42 65 0.2513 1 - 1 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 7 0 - 0
San Diego 24 62 0.0853 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 0 - 0
Savannah State 10 110 0.0025 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 11 0 - 0
South Carolina State 8 14 0.1980 0 - 1 0 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 7 0 - 0
South Dakota 157 41 0.9663 3 - 0 3 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 0 0 - 0
South Dakota State 133 50 0.9203 3 - 0 3 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 1 0 - 0
Southeast Missouri 56 98 0.1980 0 - 3 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 0 - 0
Southeastern Louisiana 77 117 0.2600 0 - 3 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 0 - 0
Southern 31 104 0.0463 1 - 2 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 0
Southern Illinois 90 20 0.9773 2 - 0 2 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 0 0 - 0
Southern Utah 96 112 0.4048 2 - 1 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 7 0 - 0
Stephen F. Austin 65 140 0.1281 1 - 2 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 10 0 - 0
Stetson 27 118 0.0244 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 11 0 - 0
Stony Brook 97 56 0.7979 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 2 0 - 0
Tennessee State 58 38 0.7421 3 - 0 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 3 0 - 0
Tennessee Tech 41 96 0.1065 0 - 3 0 - +3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 10 0 - 0
Tennessee-Martin 44 52 0.3971 1 - 1 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 6 0 - 0
Texas Southern 24 53 0.1213 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 10 0 - 0
The Citadel 79 32 0.9054 2 - 0 2 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 1 0 - 0
Towson 43 77 0.1890 2 - 1 1 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 0 - 0
UC Davis 89 59 0.7365 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 3 0 - 0
Valparaiso 63 90 0.2908 0 - 2 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 7 0 - 0
Villanova 110 51 0.8723 2 - 1 3 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 1 0 - 0
VMI 0 85 0 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 10 0 - 0
Wagner 20 48 0.1008 0 - 2 0 - +2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 9 0 - 0
Weber State 51 57 0.4309 1 - 1 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 6 0 - 0
Western Carolina 123 85 0.7158 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Western Illinois 79 34 0.8917 2 - 0 2 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 1 0 - 0
William & Mary 60 43 0.6970 2 - 1 2 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 3 0 - 0
Wofford 52 50 0.5245 2 - 0 1 - +1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 5 0 - 0
Yale 56 28 0.8498 1 - 0 1 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 2 0 - 0
Youngstown State 110 37 0.9384 2 - 1 3 - +0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 1 0 - 0