Pythagorean Expectation
Records include games against Division I opponents only.

Pythagorean Expectation uses a team's points scored and points allowed to estimate how many games the team should have won and lost to date.
Good Luck is shown when a team's actual wins exceed expected wins by two or more.
Bad Luck is shown when a team's actual wins are two or less than its expected wins.
  Points Pythagorean Overall Conference Predicted
Team Scored Allowed Expectation Record Pythag Luck Record Pythag Luck Record Conf Record
Abilene Christian 209 321 0.2549 2 - 9 3 - +8 2 - 7 2 - 7 3 - 8 2 - 7
Alabama A&M 172 279 0.2298 3 - 7 2 - +8 3 - 4 2 - 5 2 - 8 2 - 5
Alabama State 111 181 0.2275 4 - 5 2 - +7 +2 4 - 3 2 - 5 +2 2 - 7 2 - 5
Albany 191 195 0.4870 4 - 7 5 - +6 2 - 6 4 - 4 -2 5 - 6 4 - 4
Alcorn State 290 200 0.7169 6 - 4 7 - +3 6 - 2 6 - 2 7 - 3 6 - 2
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 173 329 0.1670 1 - 8 2 - +7 1 - 6 1 - 6 2 - 7 1 - 6
Austin Peay 327 297 0.5599 8 - 4 7 - +5 7 - 1 4 - 4 +3 7 - 5 4 - 4
Bethune-Cookman 228 263 0.4117 7 - 4 5 - +6 +2 6 - 2 3 - 5 +3 5 - 6 3 - 5
Brown 130 301 0.1092 2 - 8 1 - +9 0 - 7 1 - 6 1 - 9 1 - 6
Bryant 284 341 0.3876 5 - 5 4 - +6 4 - 2 2 - 4 +2 4 - 6 2 - 4
Bucknell 185 249 0.3224 5 - 6 4 - +7 2 - 4 2 - 4 4 - 7 2 - 4
Butler 224 230 0.4835 4 - 5 4 - +5 4 - 4 4 - 4 4 - 5 4 - 4
Cal Poly 203 352 0.2016 1 - 10 2 - +9 1 - 7 2 - 6 2 - 9 2 - 6
Campbell 302 247 0.6231 5 - 5 6 - +4 5 - 3 5 - 3 6 - 4 5 - 3
Central Arkansas 414 189 0.8766 10 - 1 10 - +1 9 - 0 8 - 1 10 - 1 8 - 1
Central Connecticut 295 293 0.5043 7 - 3 5 - +5 +2 6 - 0 3 - 3 +3 5 - 5 3 - 3
Charleston Southern 184 218 0.3956 5 - 5 4 - +6 3 - 2 2 - 3 4 - 6 2 - 3
Chattanooga 195 284 0.2809 3 - 8 3 - +8 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 8 2 - 6
Colgate 305 192 0.7608 7 - 4 8 - +3 5 - 1 5 - 1 8 - 3 5 - 1
Columbia 239 175 0.6855 8 - 2 7 - +3 5 - 2 5 - 2 7 - 3 5 - 2
Cornell 173 243 0.2996 3 - 7 3 - +7 3 - 4 2 - 5 3 - 7 2 - 5
Dartmouth 274 200 0.6872 8 - 2 7 - +3 5 - 2 5 - 2 7 - 3 5 - 2
Davidson 148 348 0.1055 0 - 9 1 - +8 0 - 8 1 - 7 1 - 8 1 - 7
Dayton 238 217 0.5575 5 - 6 6 - +5 4 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 5 4 - 4
Delaware 233 185 0.6403 7 - 4 7 - +4 5 - 3 5 - 3 7 - 4 5 - 3
Delaware State 158 420 0.0799 2 - 9 1 - +10 2 - 6 1 - 7 1 - 10 1 - 7
Drake 240 265 0.4384 6 - 4 4 - +6 +2 6 - 2 4 - 4 +2 4 - 6 4 - 4
Duquesne 316 249 0.6447 6 - 4 6 - +4 4 - 2 4 - 2 6 - 4 4 - 2
East Tennessee State 180 303 0.2138 3 - 7 2 - +8 2 - 6 2 - 6 2 - 8 2 - 6
Eastern Illinois 194 286 0.2748 6 - 5 3 - +8 +3 5 - 3 2 - 6 +3 3 - 8 2 - 6
Eastern Kentucky 228 292 0.3501 4 - 7 4 - +7 3 - 5 3 - 5 4 - 7 3 - 5
Eastern Washington 379 367 0.5201 7 - 4 6 - +5 6 - 2 4 - 4 +2 6 - 5 4 - 4
Elon 229 270 0.3985 8 - 3 4 - +7 +4 6 - 2 3 - 5 +3 4 - 7 3 - 5
Florida A&M 242 309 0.3518 3 - 8 4 - +7 2 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 7 3 - 5
Fordham 239 384 0.2341 4 - 7 3 - +8 3 - 3 1 - 5 +2 3 - 8 1 - 5
Furman 386 256 0.7363 7 - 4 8 - +3 6 - 2 6 - 2 8 - 3 6 - 2
Gardner-Webb 135 297 0.1223 0 - 10 1 - +9 0 - 5 1 - 4 1 - 9 1 - 4
Georgetown 138 299 0.1264 1 - 10 1 - +10 0 - 6 1 - 5 1 - 10 1 - 5
Grambling 291 172 0.7883 8 - 1 7 - +2 7 - 0 6 - 1 8 - 2 6 - 2
Hampton 177 243 0.3117 5 - 5 3 - +7 +2 5 - 3 2 - 6 +3 3 - 7 2 - 6
Harvard 220 209 0.5320 5 - 5 5 - +5 3 - 4 4 - 3 5 - 5 4 - 3
Holy Cross 254 279 0.4416 4 - 7 5 - +6 3 - 3 3 - 3 5 - 6 3 - 3
Houston Baptist 150 307 0.1430 1 - 10 2 - +9 0 - 9 1 - 8 2 - 9 1 - 8
Howard 329 310 0.5371 7 - 4 6 - +5 6 - 2 4 - 4 +2 6 - 5 4 - 4
Idaho State 272 385 0.2955 3 - 7 3 - +7 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 7 2 - 6
Illinois State 287 213 0.6782 6 - 5 7 - +4 4 - 4 5 - 3 7 - 4 5 - 3
Incarnate Word 232 525 0.1149 1 - 10 1 - +10 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 10 1 - 7
Indiana State 158 494 0.0547 0 - 11 1 - +10 0 - 8 0 - 8 1 - 10 0 - 8
Jackson State 133 251 0.1697 3 - 7 2 - +8 3 - 5 1 - 7 +2 2 - 8 1 - 7
Jacksonville 212 333 0.2444 5 - 4 2 - +7 +3 5 - 3 2 - 6 +3 2 - 7 2 - 6
Jacksonville State 339 163 0.8618 10 - 1 9 - +2 8 - 0 7 - 1 9 - 2 7 - 1
James Madison 395 99 0.9695 11 - 0 11 - +0 8 - 0 8 - 0 11 - 0 8 - 0
Kennesaw State 311 125 0.9071 9 - 1 9 - +1 5 - 0 5 - 0 9 - 1 5 - 0
Lafayette 132 299 0.1146 3 - 8 1 - +10 +2 3 - 3 1 - 5 +2 1 - 10 1 - 5
Lamar 175 385 0.1223 1 - 9 1 - +9 1 - 8 1 - 8 1 - 9 1 - 8
Lehigh 401 433 0.4522 5 - 6 5 - +6 5 - 1 3 - 3 +2 5 - 6 3 - 3
Liberty 358 334 0.5433 6 - 5 6 - +5 2 - 3 3 - 2 6 - 5 3 - 2
Maine 246 233 0.5339 4 - 6 5 - +5 3 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 5 4 - 4
Marist 234 338 0.2851 4 - 7 3 - +8 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 8 2 - 6
McNeese State 286 167 0.7933 8 - 2 8 - +2 7 - 2 7 - 2 8 - 2 7 - 2
Mercer 270 260 0.5236 5 - 6 6 - +5 4 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 5 4 - 4
Mississippi Valley State 111 440 0.0310 1 - 9 0 - +10 1 - 6 0 - 7 0 - 10 0 - 7
Missouri State 266 421 0.2409 3 - 8 3 - +8 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 8 2 - 6
Monmouth 387 285 0.6824 9 - 2 8 - +3 4 - 1 3 - 2 8 - 3 3 - 2
Montana 385 319 0.6154 7 - 4 7 - +4 5 - 3 5 - 3 7 - 4 5 - 3
Montana State 278 275 0.5068 5 - 6 6 - +5 5 - 3 4 - 4 6 - 5 4 - 4
Morehead State 210 434 0.1401 3 - 7 1 - +9 +2 3 - 5 1 - 7 +2 1 - 9 1 - 7
Morgan State 214 405 0.1687 1 - 10 2 - +9 1 - 7 1 - 7 2 - 9 1 - 7
Murray State 165 315 0.1657 2 - 8 2 - +8 2 - 5 1 - 6 2 - 8 1 - 6
New Hampshire 260 230 0.5760 7 - 4 6 - +5 5 - 3 5 - 3 6 - 5 5 - 3
Nicholls State 308 264 0.5952 8 - 3 7 - +4 7 - 2 5 - 4 +2 7 - 4 5 - 4
Norfolk State 199 289 0.2824 4 - 6 3 - +7 4 - 4 2 - 6 +2 3 - 7 2 - 6
North Carolina A&T 344 135 0.9120 10 - 0 9 - +1 8 - 0 7 - 1 9 - 1 7 - 1
North Carolina Central 195 211 0.4509 6 - 4 5 - +5 5 - 3 4 - 4 5 - 5 4 - 4
North Dakota 277 381 0.3107 3 - 8 3 - +8 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 8 2 - 6
North Dakota State 429 135 0.9474 10 - 1 10 - +1 7 - 1 8 - 0 10 - 1 8 - 0
Northern Arizona 353 315 0.5707 7 - 4 6 - +5 6 - 2 5 - 3 6 - 5 5 - 3
Northern Colorado 237 327 0.3090 2 - 7 3 - +6 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 6 2 - 6
Northern Iowa 314 263 0.6090 7 - 4 7 - +4 6 - 2 5 - 3 7 - 4 5 - 3
Northwestern State 250 346 0.3074 4 - 7 3 - +8 4 - 5 3 - 6 3 - 8 3 - 6
Penn 256 233 0.5586 5 - 4 5 - +4 4 - 3 4 - 3 5 - 4 4 - 3
Portland State 256 473 0.1773 0 - 11 2 - +9 -2 0 - 9 2 - 7 -2 2 - 9 2 - 7
Prairie View A&M 266 242 0.5588 4 - 5 5 - +4 3 - 3 3 - 3 6 - 4 4 - 3
Presbyterian College 155 305 0.1555 3 - 7 2 - +8 1 - 4 1 - 4 2 - 8 1 - 4
Princeton 382 265 0.7139 5 - 5 7 - +3 -2 2 - 5 5 - 2 -3 7 - 3 5 - 2
Rhode Island 222 300 0.3202 3 - 8 4 - +7 2 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 7 3 - 5
Richmond 340 272 0.6360 6 - 5 7 - +4 4 - 4 5 - 3 7 - 4 5 - 3
Robert Morris 112 331 0.0624 2 - 9 1 - +10 0 - 6 0 - 6 1 - 10 0 - 6
Sacramento State 414 327 0.6433 7 - 4 7 - +4 6 - 3 6 - 3 7 - 4 6 - 3
Sacred Heart 277 295 0.4607 4 - 7 5 - +6 2 - 4 3 - 3 5 - 6 3 - 3
Saint Francis (PA) 172 158 0.5529 4 - 6 6 - +4 -2 3 - 3 3 - 3 6 - 4 3 - 3
Sam Houston State 505 313 0.7678 10 - 1 8 - +3 +2 8 - 1 7 - 2 8 - 3 7 - 2
Samford 270 198 0.6847 7 - 3 7 - +3 6 - 2 5 - 3 7 - 3 5 - 3
San Diego 395 159 0.9068 8 - 2 9 - +1 8 - 0 7 - 1 9 - 1 7 - 1
Savannah State 214 347 0.2300 3 - 8 3 - +8 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 8 2 - 6
South Carolina State 164 188 0.4155 2 - 7 4 - +5 -2 2 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 5 3 - 5
South Dakota 416 259 0.7658 7 - 4 8 - +3 4 - 4 6 - 2 -2 8 - 3 6 - 2
South Dakota State 412 248 0.7806 9 - 2 9 - +2 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 2 6 - 2
Southeast Missouri 225 240 0.4598 3 - 8 5 - +6 -2 3 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 6 4 - 4
Southeastern Louisiana 383 282 0.6825 6 - 5 8 - +3 -2 6 - 3 6 - 3 8 - 3 6 - 3
Southern 249 261 0.4706 6 - 3 4 - +5 +2 5 - 1 3 - 3 +2 5 - 5 3 - 4
Southern Illinois 301 302 0.4979 4 - 7 5 - +6 2 - 6 4 - 4 -2 5 - 6 4 - 4
Southern Utah 390 306 0.6471 9 - 2 7 - +4 +2 7 - 1 5 - 3 +2 7 - 4 5 - 3
Stephen F. Austin 216 325 0.2648 4 - 7 3 - +8 4 - 5 2 - 7 +2 3 - 8 2 - 7
Stetson 166 337 0.1455 2 - 9 2 - +9 1 - 7 1 - 7 2 - 9 1 - 7
Stony Brook 314 213 0.7252 9 - 2 8 - +3 7 - 1 6 - 2 8 - 3 6 - 2
Tennessee State 207 216 0.4734 5 - 5 5 - +5 2 - 5 3 - 4 5 - 5 3 - 4
Tennessee Tech 174 325 0.1734 1 - 10 2 - +9 1 - 7 1 - 7 2 - 9 1 - 7
Tennessee-Martin 180 157 0.5846 5 - 5 6 - +4 4 - 4 5 - 3 6 - 4 5 - 3
Texas Southern 166 292 0.1959 2 - 8 2 - +8 2 - 5 1 - 6 2 - 9 2 - 6
The Citadel 206 276 0.3249 4 - 6 3 - +7 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 7 3 - 5
Towson 192 263 0.3129 5 - 6 3 - +8 +2 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 8 3 - 5
UC Davis 370 354 0.5276 5 - 6 6 - +5 4 - 5 5 - 4 6 - 5 5 - 4
Valparaiso 286 303 0.4640 5 - 5 5 - +5 5 - 3 4 - 4 5 - 5 4 - 4
Villanova 231 177 0.6605 5 - 6 7 - +4 -2 3 - 5 5 - 3 -2 7 - 4 5 - 3
VMI 68 381 0.0133 0 - 10 0 - +10 0 - 8 0 - 8 0 - 10 0 - 8
Wagner 197 297 0.2638 3 - 7 3 - +7 2 - 4 2 - 4 3 - 7 2 - 4
Weber State 317 183 0.7980 8 - 2 8 - +2 8 - 1 7 - 2 8 - 2 7 - 2
Western Carolina 389 325 0.6105 7 - 5 7 - +5 5 - 3 5 - 3 7 - 5 5 - 3
Western Illinois 391 245 0.7629 8 - 3 8 - +3 5 - 3 6 - 2 8 - 3 6 - 2
William & Mary 165 263 0.2377 2 - 9 3 - +8 0 - 8 2 - 6 -2 3 - 8 2 - 6
Wofford 296 239 0.6306 9 - 2 7 - +4 +2 7 - 1 5 - 3 +2 7 - 4 5 - 3
Yale 345 156 0.8791 9 - 1 9 - +1 6 - 1 6 - 1 9 - 1 6 - 1
Youngstown State 327 210 0.7516 6 - 5 8 - +3 -2 4 - 4 6 - 2 -2 8 - 3 6 - 2