Pythagorean Expectation
Records include games against Division I opponents only.
Pythagorean Expectation uses a team's points scored and points allowed to estimate how many games the team should have won and lost to date.
Good Luck is shown when a team's actual wins exceed expected wins by two or more.
Bad Luck is shown when a team's actual wins are two or less than its expected wins.
  Points Pythagorean Overall Conference Predicted
Team Scored Allowed Expectation Record Pythag Luck Record Pythag Luck Record Conf Record
Abilene Christian 295 417 0.2962 2 - 9 3 - 8 2 - 7 3 - 6 3 - 8 3 - 6
Alabama A&M 261 427 0.2261 3 - 8 2 - 9 3 - 6 2 - 7 2 - 9 2 - 7
Alabama State 234 280 0.3897 4 - 6 4 - 6 4 - 5 4 - 5 4 - 6 4 - 5
Albany 274 207 0.6684 7 - 4 7 - 4 4 - 4 5 - 3 7 - 4 5 - 3
Alcorn State 333 319 0.5268 5 - 6 6 - 5 5 - 4 5 - 4 6 - 5 5 - 4
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 134 444 0.0477 1 - 9 0 - 10 1 - 8 0 - 9 0 - 10 0 - 9
Austin Peay 259 517 0.1508 0 - 11 2 - 9 -2 0 - 8 1 - 7 2 - 9 1 - 7
Bethune-Cookman 252 252 0.5000 4 - 6 5 - 5 4 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 5 5 - 4
Brown 204 265 0.3421 4 - 6 3 - 7 3 - 4 2 - 5 3 - 7 2 - 5
Bryant 275 290 0.4669 4 - 6 5 - 5 4 - 2 3 - 3 5 - 5 3 - 3
Bucknell 232 263 0.4223 4 - 7 5 - 6 3 - 3 3 - 3 5 - 6 3 - 3
Butler 184 290 0.2428 2 - 7 2 - 7 2 - 6 2 - 6 2 - 7 2 - 6
Cal Poly 416 394 0.5339 7 - 5 6 - 6 5 - 3 4 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 4
Campbell 175 223 0.3530 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 4 2 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 5
Central Arkansas 430 282 0.7417 10 - 3 10 - 3 8 - 1 7 - 2 10 - 3 7 - 2
Central Connecticut 201 348 0.2023 1 - 9 2 - 8 1 - 5 1 - 5 2 - 8 1 - 5
Charleston Southern 306 237 0.6545 6 - 4 7 - 3 4 - 1 3 - 2 7 - 3 3 - 2
Chattanooga 379 255 0.7292 8 - 4 9 - 3 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 2
Coastal Carolina 447 232 0.8375 10 - 2 10 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 - 0
Colgate 311 234 0.6707 5 - 5 7 - 3 -2 4 - 2 4 - 2 7 - 3 4 - 2
Columbia 185 247 0.3268 3 - 7 3 - 7 2 - 5 2 - 5 3 - 7 2 - 5
Cornell 230 310 0.3216 4 - 6 3 - 7 2 - 5 2 - 5 3 - 7 2 - 5
Dartmouth 201 213 0.4638 4 - 6 5 - 5 1 - 6 3 - 4 -2 5 - 5 3 - 4
Davidson 118 290 0.0955 0 - 9 1 - 8 0 - 8 1 - 7 1 - 8 1 - 7
Dayton 325 199 0.7732 8 - 2 8 - 2 7 - 1 6 - 2 8 - 2 6 - 2
Delaware 242 276 0.4186 4 - 7 5 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 5 5 - 6 3 - 5
Delaware State 162 437 0.0772 0 - 11 1 - 10 0 - 8 1 - 7 1 - 10 1 - 7
Drake 247 257 0.4752 6 - 3 4 - 5 +2 6 - 2 4 - 4 +2 4 - 5 4 - 4
Duquesne 343 273 0.6389 8 - 3 7 - 4 5 - 1 4 - 2 7 - 4 4 - 2
East Tennessee State 113 285 0.0901 3 - 6 1 - 8 +2 2 - 6 1 - 7 1 - 8 1 - 7
Eastern Illinois 294 310 0.4669 6 - 5 5 - 6 4 - 4 4 - 4 5 - 6 4 - 4
Eastern Kentucky 232 322 0.3059 2 - 8 3 - 7 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 7 2 - 6
Eastern Washington 593 371 0.7636 12 - 2 11 - 3 8 - 0 6 - 2 +2 11 - 3 6 - 2
Elon 108 335 0.0557 1 - 9 1 - 9 1 - 7 0 - 8 1 - 9 0 - 8
Florida A&M 189 341 0.1861 4 - 6 2 - 8 +2 4 - 4 1 - 7 +3 2 - 8 1 - 7
Fordham 358 310 0.5890 7 - 3 6 - 4 5 - 1 4 - 2 6 - 4 4 - 2
Furman 301 298 0.5063 3 - 8 6 - 5 -3 3 - 5 4 - 4 6 - 5 4 - 4
Gardner-Webb 231 251 0.4483 4 - 6 4 - 6 3 - 2 2 - 3 4 - 6 2 - 3
Georgetown 166 256 0.2529 3 - 8 3 - 8 0 - 6 2 - 4 -2 3 - 8 2 - 4
Grambling 477 193 0.9057 11 - 1 11 - 1 9 - 0 8 - 1 11 - 1 8 - 1
Hampton 213 269 0.3581 5 - 6 4 - 7 5 - 3 3 - 5 +2 4 - 7 3 - 5
Harvard 262 203 0.6543 7 - 3 7 - 3 5 - 2 5 - 2 7 - 3 5 - 2
Holy Cross 259 355 0.3126 4 - 7 3 - 8 2 - 4 2 - 4 3 - 8 2 - 4
Houston Baptist 207 383 0.1768 4 - 7 2 - 9 +2 3 - 5 1 - 7 +2 2 - 9 1 - 7
Howard 208 383 0.1785 2 - 9 2 - 9 2 - 6 1 - 7 2 - 9 1 - 7
Idaho State 220 448 0.1446 1 - 9 1 - 9 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 9 1 - 7
Illinois State 312 262 0.6075 6 - 6 7 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3 7 - 5 5 - 3
Incarnate Word 268 384 0.2892 3 - 7 3 - 7 3 - 6 3 - 6 3 - 7 3 - 6
Indiana State 274 359 0.3373 4 - 7 4 - 7 2 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 7 3 - 5
Jackson State 203 317 0.2471 3 - 8 3 - 8 3 - 6 2 - 7 3 - 8 2 - 7
Jacksonville 285 326 0.4168 4 - 5 4 - 5 4 - 3 3 - 4 4 - 5 3 - 4
Jacksonville State 340 207 0.7757 9 - 2 9 - 2 7 - 0 5 - 2 +2 9 - 2 5 - 2
James Madison 700 318 0.8779 14 - 1 13 - 2 8 - 0 7 - 1 13 - 2 7 - 1
Kennesaw State 274 220 0.6338 5 - 3 5 - 3 3 - 2 3 - 2 5 - 3 3 - 2
Lafayette 216 386 0.1898 2 - 9 2 - 9 1 - 5 1 - 5 2 - 9 1 - 5
Lamar 230 336 0.2794 3 - 8 3 - 8 3 - 6 3 - 6 3 - 8 3 - 6
Lehigh 466 323 0.7143 9 - 3 9 - 3 6 - 0 4 - 2 +2 9 - 3 4 - 2
Liberty 302 286 0.5340 6 - 5 6 - 5 4 - 1 3 - 2 6 - 5 3 - 2
Maine 245 288 0.4003 6 - 5 4 - 7 +2 5 - 3 3 - 5 +2 4 - 7 3 - 5
Marist 276 321 0.4067 5 - 6 4 - 7 5 - 3 3 - 5 +2 4 - 7 3 - 5
McNeese State 319 282 0.5764 5 - 5 6 - 4 5 - 4 5 - 4 6 - 4 5 - 4
Mercer 298 318 0.4595 6 - 5 5 - 6 4 - 4 4 - 4 5 - 6 4 - 4
Mississippi Valley State 154 504 0.0491 1 - 10 1 - 10 1 - 8 0 - 9 1 - 10 0 - 9
Missouri State 200 393 0.1559 3 - 7 2 - 8 2 - 6 1 - 7 2 - 8 1 - 7
Monmouth 280 361 0.3463 4 - 7 4 - 7 0 - 5 2 - 3 -2 4 - 7 2 - 3
Montana 434 297 0.7208 6 - 5 8 - 3 -2 3 - 5 6 - 2 -3 8 - 3 6 - 2
Montana State 227 276 0.3802 3 - 7 4 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 6 3 - 5
Morehead State 300 374 0.3656 3 - 7 4 - 6 3 - 5 3 - 5 4 - 6 3 - 5
Morgan State 184 370 0.1485 3 - 8 2 - 9 3 - 5 1 - 7 +2 2 - 9 1 - 7
Murray State 287 387 0.3214 4 - 7 4 - 7 4 - 4 3 - 5 4 - 7 3 - 5
New Hampshire 371 316 0.5990 8 - 5 8 - 5 6 - 2 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Nicholls State 333 328 0.5095 5 - 6 6 - 5 5 - 4 5 - 4 6 - 5 5 - 4
Norfolk State 154 257 0.2175 3 - 7 2 - 8 3 - 5 2 - 6 2 - 8 2 - 6
North Carolina A&T 360 277 0.6582 8 - 3 7 - 4 7 - 1 5 - 3 +2 7 - 4 5 - 3
North Carolina Central 282 268 0.5318 8 - 3 6 - 5 +2 8 - 0 4 - 4 +4 6 - 5 4 - 4
North Dakota 355 264 0.6771 9 - 3 8 - 4 8 - 0 5 - 3 +3 8 - 4 5 - 3
North Dakota State 408 232 0.8040 12 - 2 11 - 3 7 - 1 6 - 2 11 - 3 6 - 2
Northern Arizona 288 310 0.4541 4 - 6 5 - 5 4 - 4 4 - 4 5 - 5 4 - 4
Northern Colorado 321 371 0.4105 5 - 5 4 - 6 4 - 4 3 - 5 4 - 6 3 - 5
Northern Iowa 320 242 0.6678 5 - 6 7 - 4 -2 4 - 4 5 - 3 7 - 4 5 - 3
Northwestern State 200 363 0.1839 0 - 10 2 - 8 -2 0 - 9 2 - 7 -2 2 - 8 2 - 7
Pennsylvania 277 213 0.6585 7 - 3 7 - 3 6 - 1 5 - 2 7 - 3 5 - 2
Portland State 322 403 0.3633 2 - 8 4 - 6 -2 2 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 6 3 - 5
Prairie View A&M 360 343 0.5302 7 - 4 6 - 5 7 - 2 5 - 4 +2 6 - 5 5 - 4
Presbyterian College 91 312 0.0439 2 - 8 0 - 10 +2 1 - 4 0 - 5 0 - 10 0 - 5
Princeton 339 164 0.8600 8 - 2 9 - 1 6 - 1 6 - 1 9 - 1 6 - 1
Rhode Island 185 400 0.1270 2 - 9 1 - 10 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 10 1 - 7
Richmond 401 328 0.6230 10 - 4 9 - 5 5 - 3 5 - 3 9 - 5 5 - 3
Robert Morris 94 233 0.0937 1 - 8 1 - 8 1 - 5 1 - 5 1 - 8 1 - 5
Sacramento State 237 402 0.2107 2 - 8 2 - 8 2 - 7 2 - 7 2 - 8 2 - 7
Sacred Heart 292 271 0.5465 6 - 5 6 - 5 1 - 5 3 - 3 -2 6 - 5 3 - 3
Saint Francis (PA) 271 228 0.6063 6 - 5 7 - 4 5 - 1 4 - 2 7 - 4 4 - 2
Sam Houston State 585 365 0.7648 11 - 1 9 - 3 +2 9 - 0 7 - 2 +2 9 - 3 7 - 2
Samford 344 320 0.5451 6 - 5 6 - 5 5 - 3 4 - 4 6 - 5 4 - 4
San Diego 401 187 0.8707 9 - 2 10 - 1 8 - 0 7 - 1 10 - 1 7 - 1
Savannah State 143 308 0.1281 3 - 7 1 - 9 +2 3 - 5 1 - 7 +2 1 - 9 1 - 7
South Carolina State 232 254 0.4436 5 - 6 5 - 6 5 - 3 4 - 4 5 - 7 4 - 5
South Dakota 329 379 0.4125 4 - 7 5 - 6 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 6 3 - 5
South Dakota State 431 355 0.6189 9 - 4 8 - 5 7 - 1 5 - 3 +2 8 - 5 5 - 3
Southeast Missouri State 229 268 0.4030 3 - 8 4 - 7 3 - 5 3 - 5 4 - 7 3 - 5
Southeastern Louisiana 319 328 0.4826 7 - 4 5 - 6 +2 7 - 2 4 - 5 +3 5 - 6 4 - 5
Southern 438 311 0.7018 8 - 3 8 - 3 8 - 1 6 - 3 +2 8 - 3 6 - 3
Southern Illinois 340 338 0.5037 4 - 7 6 - 5 -2 2 - 6 4 - 4 -2 6 - 5 4 - 4
Southern Utah 321 312 0.5178 6 - 5 6 - 5 5 - 3 4 - 4 6 - 5 4 - 4
Stephen F. Austin 304 398 0.3377 4 - 6 3 - 7 4 - 5 3 - 6 3 - 7 3 - 6
Stetson 203 288 0.2943 3 - 7 3 - 7 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 7 2 - 6
Stony Brook 184 222 0.3848 5 - 6 4 - 7 4 - 4 3 - 5 4 - 7 3 - 5
Tennessee State 355 331 0.5436 7 - 4 6 - 5 4 - 3 4 - 3 6 - 5 4 - 3
Tennessee Tech 296 316 0.4592 5 - 6 5 - 6 5 - 3 4 - 4 5 - 6 4 - 4
Tennessee-Martin 303 282 0.5448 6 - 5 6 - 5 6 - 2 4 - 4 +2 6 - 5 4 - 4
Texas Southern 256 304 0.3942 4 - 7 4 - 7 4 - 5 4 - 5 4 - 7 4 - 5
The Citadel 279 232 0.6133 9 - 2 7 - 4 +2 8 - 0 5 - 3 +3 7 - 4 5 - 3
Towson 243 304 0.3636 4 - 7 4 - 7 3 - 5 3 - 5 4 - 7 3 - 5
UC Davis 258 373 0.2846 2 - 8 3 - 7 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 7 2 - 6
Valparaiso 204 342 0.2156 3 - 7 2 - 8 3 - 5 2 - 6 2 - 8 2 - 6
Villanova 317 195 0.7711 9 - 4 10 - 3 6 - 2 6 - 2 10 - 3 6 - 2
VMI 224 305 0.3161 3 - 8 3 - 8 1 - 7 3 - 5 -2 3 - 8 3 - 5
Wagner 211 216 0.4854 4 - 5 4 - 5 4 - 2 3 - 3 4 - 5 3 - 3
Weber State 312 360 0.4115 7 - 5 5 - 7 +2 7 - 2 4 - 5 +3 5 - 7 4 - 5
Western Carolina 265 396 0.2681 2 - 9 3 - 8 1 - 7 2 - 6 3 - 8 2 - 6
Western Illinois 319 346 0.4494 6 - 5 5 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 6 4 - 4
William & Mary 243 259 0.4602 5 - 6 5 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 6 4 - 4
Wofford 316 239 0.6678 9 - 4 9 - 4 6 - 2 5 - 3 9 - 4 5 - 3
Yale 203 339 0.2172 3 - 7 2 - 8 3 - 4 2 - 5 2 - 8 2 - 5
Youngstown State 442 319 0.6932 12 - 4 11 - 5 6 - 2 6 - 2 11 - 5 6 - 2