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Pythagorean Expectation
Records include games against Division I opponents only.
Pythagorean Expectation uses a team's points scored and points allowed to estimate how many games the team should have won and lost to date.
Good Luck is shown when a team's actual wins exceed expected wins by two or more.
Bad Luck is shown when a team's actual wins are two or less than its expected wins.
  Points Pythagorean Overall Conference Predicted
Team Scored Allowed Expectation Record Pythag Luck Record Pythag Luck Record Conf Record
Abilene Christian 272 358 0.3347 3 - 8 4 - 7 3 - 6 3 - 6 4 - 7 3 - 6
Alabama A&M 228 387 0.2104 3 - 8 2 - 9 3 - 6 2 - 7 2 - 9 2 - 7
Alabama State 254 266 0.4712 5 - 5 5 - 5 5 - 4 4 - 5 5 - 5 4 - 5
Albany 165 315 0.1657 3 - 8 2 - 9 2 - 6 1 - 7 2 - 9 1 - 7
Alcorn State 475 288 0.7775 8 - 4 9 - 3 7 - 2 7 - 2 9 - 3 7 - 2
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 186 395 0.1321 1 - 9 1 - 9 1 - 8 1 - 8 1 - 9 1 - 8
Austin Peay 133 429 0.0508 0 - 11 1 - 10 0 - 8 0 - 8 1 - 10 0 - 8
Bethune-Cookman 338 272 0.6325 8 - 2 6 - 4 +2 7 - 1 5 - 3 +2 6 - 4 5 - 3
Brown 279 329 0.3984 5 - 5 4 - 6 3 - 4 3 - 4 4 - 6 3 - 4
Bryant 270 247 0.5554 4 - 6 6 - 4 -2 3 - 3 3 - 3 6 - 4 3 - 3
Bucknell 172 206 0.3891 4 - 7 4 - 7 1 - 5 2 - 4 4 - 7 2 - 4
Butler 228 241 0.4654 4 - 5 4 - 5 4 - 4 4 - 4 4 - 5 4 - 4
Cal Poly 372 390 0.4705 4 - 7 5 - 6 4 - 5 4 - 5 5 - 6 4 - 5
Campbell 194 172 0.5747 3 - 6 5 - 4 -2 3 - 5 5 - 3 -2 5 - 4 5 - 3
Central Arkansas 310 277 0.5699 7 - 4 6 - 5 7 - 2 5 - 4 +2 6 - 5 5 - 4
Central Connecticut 169 269 0.2383 3 - 7 2 - 8 3 - 3 1 - 5 +2 2 - 8 1 - 5
Charleston Southern 327 268 0.6219 9 - 3 7 - 5 +2 6 - 0 4 - 2 +2 7 - 5 4 - 2
Chattanooga 340 257 0.6681 8 - 4 8 - 4 6 - 1 5 - 2 8 - 4 5 - 2
Coastal Carolina 421 241 0.8013 9 - 3 10 - 2 4 - 2 5 - 1 10 - 2 5 - 1
Colgate 356 401 0.4261 9 - 5 6 - 8 +3 6 - 0 3 - 3 +3 6 - 8 3 - 3
Columbia 143 198 0.3071 2 - 8 3 - 7 1 - 6 2 - 5 3 - 7 2 - 5
Cornell 142 297 0.1365 1 - 9 1 - 9 1 - 6 1 - 6 1 - 9 1 - 6
Dartmouth 288 101 0.9321 9 - 1 9 - 1 6 - 1 7 - 0 9 - 1 7 - 0
Davidson 103 347 0.0458 1 - 8 0 - 9 1 - 7 0 - 8 0 - 9 0 - 8
Dayton 296 229 0.6551 10 - 2 8 - 4 +2 7 - 1 5 - 3 +2 8 - 4 5 - 3
Delaware 164 225 0.3120 4 - 7 3 - 8 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 8 2 - 6
Delaware State 128 349 0.0753 1 - 9 1 - 9 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 9 1 - 7
Drake 210 233 0.4354 4 - 6 4 - 6 4 - 4 3 - 5 4 - 6 3 - 5
Duquesne 268 206 0.6588 6 - 4 7 - 3 5 - 1 4 - 2 7 - 3 4 - 2
East Tennessee State 51 325 0.0097 0 - 7 0 - 7 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 7 0 - 0
Eastern Illinois 283 319 0.4257 7 - 5 5 - 7 +2 7 - 1 3 - 5 +4 5 - 7 3 - 5
Eastern Kentucky 333 271 0.6260 6 - 5 7 - 4 5 - 3 5 - 3 7 - 4 5 - 3
Eastern Washington 381 435 0.4179 6 - 5 5 - 6 6 - 3 4 - 5 +2 5 - 6 4 - 5
Elon 147 273 0.1754 4 - 7 2 - 9 +2 3 - 5 1 - 7 +2 2 - 9 1 - 7
Florida A&M 161 369 0.1117 1 - 10 1 - 10 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 10 1 - 7
Fordham 442 367 0.6142 9 - 3 7 - 5 +2 5 - 1 4 - 2 7 - 5 4 - 2
Furman 193 318 0.2230 4 - 7 2 - 9 +2 2 - 5 2 - 5 2 - 9 2 - 5
Gardner-Webb 128 218 0.2090 3 - 7 2 - 8 2 - 4 1 - 5 2 - 8 1 - 5
Georgetown 222 296 0.3276 4 - 7 4 - 7 2 - 4 2 - 4 4 - 7 2 - 4
Grambling 496 400 0.6313 9 - 3 8 - 4 9 - 0 6 - 3 +3 8 - 4 6 - 3
Hampton 253 213 0.6059 5 - 5 6 - 4 5 - 3 5 - 3 6 - 4 5 - 3
Harvard 364 130 0.9292 9 - 1 9 - 1 6 - 1 7 - 0 9 - 1 7 - 0
Holy Cross 351 249 0.7023 6 - 5 8 - 3 -2 3 - 3 4 - 2 8 - 3 4 - 2
Houston Baptist 106 389 0.0373 0 - 9 0 - 9 0 - 8 0 - 8 0 - 9 0 - 8
Howard 169 408 0.0994 1 - 10 1 - 10 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 10 1 - 7
Idaho State 187 450 0.1002 1 - 9 1 - 9 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 9 1 - 7
Illinois State 451 276 0.7734 10 - 3 10 - 3 7 - 1 6 - 2 10 - 3 6 - 2
Incarnate Word 208 278 0.3262 5 - 5 3 - 7 +2 5 - 4 3 - 6 +2 3 - 7 3 - 6
Indiana State 305 346 0.4218 5 - 6 5 - 6 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 6 3 - 5
Jackson State 252 378 0.2663 3 - 8 3 - 8 3 - 6 2 - 7 3 - 8 2 - 7
Jacksonville 269 168 0.7644 7 - 2 7 - 2 6 - 2 6 - 2 7 - 2 6 - 2
Jacksonville State 584 299 0.8421 13 - 2 13 - 2 8 - 0 7 - 1 13 - 2 7 - 1
James Madison 531 344 0.7475 9 - 3 9 - 3 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 2
Kennesaw State 186 199 0.4579 3 - 5 4 - 4 2 - 4 3 - 3 4 - 4 3 - 3
Lafayette 150 386 0.0860 1 - 10 1 - 10 0 - 6 1 - 5 1 - 10 1 - 5
Lamar 328 331 0.4943 4 - 6 5 - 5 4 - 5 4 - 5 5 - 5 4 - 5
Lehigh 355 388 0.4447 6 - 5 5 - 6 4 - 2 3 - 3 5 - 6 3 - 3
Liberty 285 296 0.4763 6 - 5 5 - 6 3 - 3 3 - 3 5 - 6 3 - 3
Maine 164 237 0.2849 3 - 8 3 - 8 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 8 2 - 6
Marist 250 224 0.5682 5 - 6 6 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3 6 - 5 5 - 3
McNeese State 295 145 0.8552 9 - 1 9 - 1 9 - 0 8 - 1 9 - 1 8 - 1
Mercer 318 238 0.6736 5 - 6 7 - 4 -2 2 - 5 5 - 2 -3 7 - 4 5 - 2
Mississippi Valley State 152 483 0.0526 1 - 10 1 - 10 1 - 8 0 - 9 1 - 10 0 - 9
Missouri State 87 522 0.0112 0 - 10 0 - 10 0 - 8 0 - 8 0 - 10 0 - 8
Monmouth 226 277 0.3755 5 - 6 4 - 7 3 - 3 2 - 4 4 - 7 2 - 4
Montana 381 320 0.6074 8 - 5 8 - 5 6 - 3 5 - 4 8 - 5 5 - 4
Montana State 416 363 0.5844 4 - 6 6 - 4 -2 3 - 6 5 - 4 -2 6 - 4 5 - 4
Morehead State 281 278 0.5067 6 - 4 5 - 5 6 - 2 4 - 4 +2 5 - 5 4 - 4
Morgan State 182 254 0.3029 4 - 6 3 - 7 4 - 4 2 - 6 +2 3 - 7 2 - 6
Murray State 284 397 0.3021 2 - 8 3 - 7 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 7 2 - 6
New Hampshire 287 264 0.5520 7 - 5 7 - 5 5 - 3 4 - 4 7 - 5 4 - 4
Nicholls State 195 357 0.1807 3 - 8 2 - 9 3 - 6 2 - 7 2 - 9 2 - 7
Norfolk State 184 312 0.2108 4 - 7 2 - 9 +2 4 - 4 2 - 6 +2 2 - 9 2 - 6
North Carolina A&T 310 199 0.7518 9 - 2 8 - 3 7 - 1 6 - 2 8 - 3 6 - 2
North Carolina Central 255 233 0.5562 7 - 3 6 - 4 7 - 1 4 - 4 +3 6 - 4 4 - 4
North Dakota 309 283 0.5547 7 - 4 6 - 5 5 - 3 4 - 4 6 - 5 4 - 4
North Dakota State 524 230 0.8868 13 - 2 13 - 2 7 - 1 7 - 1 13 - 2 7 - 1
Northern Arizona 391 378 0.5211 6 - 4 5 - 5 5 - 3 4 - 4 5 - 5 4 - 4
Northern Colorado 288 344 0.3907 5 - 5 4 - 6 3 - 5 3 - 5 4 - 6 3 - 5
Northern Iowa 413 274 0.7361 9 - 5 10 - 4 5 - 3 6 - 2 10 - 4 6 - 2
Northwestern State 307 435 0.2950 4 - 7 3 - 8 4 - 5 3 - 6 3 - 8 3 - 6
Pennsylvania 329 268 0.6254 7 - 3 6 - 4 6 - 1 4 - 3 +2 6 - 4 4 - 3
Portland State 380 268 0.7054 8 - 3 8 - 3 6 - 2 6 - 2 8 - 3 6 - 2
Prairie View A&M 449 331 0.6818 8 - 2 7 - 3 8 - 1 6 - 3 +2 7 - 3 6 - 3
Presbyterian College 138 223 0.2315 2 - 9 3 - 8 1 - 5 1 - 5 3 - 8 1 - 5
Princeton 292 237 0.6276 5 - 5 6 - 4 2 - 5 4 - 3 -2 6 - 4 4 - 3
Rhode Island 145 329 0.1142 1 - 10 1 - 10 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 10 1 - 7
Richmond 462 344 0.6764 10 - 4 9 - 5 6 - 2 5 - 3 9 - 5 5 - 3
Robert Morris 119 214 0.1874 3 - 7 2 - 8 2 - 4 1 - 5 2 - 8 1 - 5
Sacramento State 175 348 0.1521 1 - 9 2 - 8 1 - 8 1 - 8 2 - 8 1 - 8
Sacred Heart 258 231 0.5687 5 - 5 6 - 4 3 - 3 3 - 3 6 - 4 3 - 3
Saint Francis (PA) 282 209 0.6789 6 - 4 7 - 3 4 - 2 4 - 2 7 - 3 4 - 2
Sam Houston State 578 397 0.7189 10 - 4 10 - 4 7 - 2 6 - 3 10 - 4 6 - 3
Samford 338 294 0.5863 5 - 5 6 - 4 3 - 4 4 - 3 6 - 4 4 - 3
San Diego 251 163 0.7464 7 - 2 7 - 2 7 - 1 6 - 2 7 - 2 6 - 2
Savannah State 154 436 0.0690 1 - 9 1 - 9 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 9 1 - 7
South Carolina State 294 167 0.8044 7 - 4 9 - 2 -2 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 2 6 - 2
South Dakota 231 280 0.3820 5 - 6 4 - 7 3 - 5 3 - 5 4 - 7 3 - 5
South Dakota State 341 208 0.7748 8 - 4 9 - 3 5 - 3 6 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 2
Southeast Missouri State 258 273 0.4647 4 - 6 5 - 5 3 - 4 3 - 4 5 - 5 3 - 4
Southeastern Louisiana 193 223 0.4107 3 - 7 4 - 6 3 - 6 4 - 5 4 - 6 4 - 5
Southern 381 369 0.5200 6 - 5 6 - 5 6 - 3 5 - 4 6 - 5 5 - 4
Southern Illinois 397 381 0.5257 3 - 8 6 - 5 -3 2 - 6 4 - 4 -2 6 - 5 4 - 4
Southern Utah 370 243 0.7410 7 - 4 8 - 3 7 - 1 6 - 2 8 - 3 6 - 2
Stephen F. Austin 316 362 0.4159 4 - 7 5 - 6 4 - 5 4 - 5 5 - 6 4 - 5
Stetson 135 312 0.1097 1 - 8 1 - 8 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 8 1 - 7
Stony Brook 173 157 0.5604 5 - 5 6 - 4 3 - 5 4 - 4 6 - 4 4 - 4
Tennessee State 246 281 0.4176 4 - 6 4 - 6 1 - 6 3 - 4 -2 4 - 6 3 - 4
Tennessee Tech 254 395 0.2490 4 - 7 3 - 8 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 8 2 - 6
Tennessee-Martin 318 360 0.4231 6 - 4 4 - 6 +2 6 - 2 3 - 5 +3 4 - 6 3 - 5
Texas Southern 193 338 0.1977 2 - 7 2 - 7 2 - 7 2 - 7 2 - 7 2 - 7
The Citadel 400 283 0.7037 9 - 4 9 - 4 6 - 1 5 - 2 9 - 4 5 - 2
Towson 260 236 0.5602 7 - 4 6 - 5 5 - 3 4 - 4 6 - 5 4 - 4
UC Davis 245 376 0.2552 2 - 9 3 - 8 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 8 2 - 6
Valparaiso 159 432 0.0759 1 - 9 1 - 9 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 9 1 - 7
Villanova 231 202 0.5831 6 - 5 6 - 5 5 - 3 5 - 3 6 - 5 5 - 3
VMI 254 385 0.2612 2 - 9 3 - 8 1 - 6 2 - 5 3 - 8 2 - 5
Wagner 157 397 0.0895 1 - 10 1 - 10 1 - 5 1 - 5 1 - 10 1 - 5
Weber State 247 270 0.4446 6 - 5 5 - 6 6 - 3 4 - 5 +2 5 - 6 4 - 5
Western Carolina 259 290 0.4298 6 - 4 4 - 6 +2 5 - 2 3 - 4 +2 4 - 6 3 - 4
Western Illinois 327 386 0.3978 7 - 6 5 - 8 +2 5 - 3 3 - 5 +2 5 - 8 3 - 5
William & Mary 402 295 0.6843 9 - 4 9 - 4 6 - 2 5 - 3 9 - 4 5 - 3
Wofford 284 305 0.4555 5 - 6 5 - 6 3 - 4 3 - 4 5 - 6 3 - 4
Yale 235 242 0.4817 6 - 4 5 - 5 3 - 4 3 - 4 5 - 5 3 - 4
Youngstown State 323 254 0.6458 5 - 6 7 - 4 -2 3 - 5 5 - 3 -2 7 - 4 5 - 3