Pythagorean Expectation
Records include games against Division I opponents only.

Pythagorean Expectation uses a team's points scored and points allowed to estimate how many games the team should have won and lost to date.
Good Luck is shown when a team's actual wins exceed expected wins by two or more.
Bad Luck is shown when a team's actual wins are two or less than its expected wins.
  Points Pythagorean Overall Conference Predicted
Team Scored Allowed Expectation Record Pythag Luck Record Pythag Luck Record Conf Record
Air Force 65 33 0.8448 1 - 1 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 7 - 1
Akron 80 41 0.8417 2 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 2 7 - 1
Alabama 170 28 0.9891 3 - 0 3 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 12 - 0 8 - 0
Appalachian State 83 54 0.7455 1 - 1 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 6 - 2
Arizona 103 104 0.4940 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 4 - 5
Arizona State 86 48 0.8112 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 7 - 2
Arkansas 99 98 0.5063 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 4 - 4
Arkansas State 84 98 0.4048 2 - 1 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 3 - 5
Army 80 69 0.5914 2 - 1 2 - 1 1 - 0 1 - 0 7 - 5 1 - 0
Auburn 105 47 0.8818 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 1 1 - 0 11 - 1 7 - 1
Ball State 68 68 0.5000 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 4 - 4
Baylor 119 87 0.6863 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 6 - 3
Boise State 139 71 0.8428 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 7 - 1
Boston College 158 69 0.8881 3 - 0 3 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 11 - 1 7 - 1
Bowling Green 80 138 0.2037 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 10 2 - 6
Buffalo 119 67 0.8078 3 - 0 2 - 1 1 - 0 1 - 0 10 - 2 6 - 2
BYU 70 65 0.5462 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 5 1 - 1
California 90 58 0.7500 3 - 0 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 7 - 2
Central Michigan 43 90 0.1363 0 - 3 0 - 3 0 - 1 0 - 1 2 - 10 1 - 7
Charlotte 71 80 0.4260 2 - 1 1 - 2 1 - 0 0 - 1 5 - 7 3 - 5
Cincinnati 110 24 0.9782 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 0 8 - 0
Clemson 114 40 0.9320 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 7 - 1
Coastal Carolina 120 94 0.6481 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 5 - 3
Colorado 123 55 0.8821 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 8 - 1
Colorado State 91 163 0.1889 1 - 3 1 - 3 0 - 1 0 - 1 2 - 10 2 - 6
Connecticut 80 167 0.1371 1 - 2 0 - 3 0 - 1 0 - 1 2 - 10 1 - 7
Duke 95 48 0.8464 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 7 - 1
East Carolina 64 47 0.6839 1 - 1 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 3 5 - 3
Eastern Michigan 99 71 0.6966 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 0 8 - 4 6 - 2
FAU 132 174 0.3339 2 - 2 1 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 8 3 - 5
FIU 119 82 0.7173 2 - 1 2 - 1 1 - 0 1 - 0 9 - 3 6 - 2
Florida 117 43 0.9243 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 1 1 - 0 11 - 1 7 - 1
Florida State 46 80 0.2005 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 2 2 - 10 2 - 6
Fresno State 131 48 0.9248 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 7 - 1
Georgia 135 24 0.9868 3 - 0 3 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 12 - 0 8 - 0
Georgia Southern 78 57 0.6866 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 5 - 3
Georgia State 53 120 0.1148 1 - 2 0 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 11 1 - 7
Georgia Tech 98 73 0.6762 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 0 8 - 4 5 - 3
Hawaii 166 132 0.6394 3 - 1 3 - 1 1 - 0 1 - 0 8 - 5 5 - 3
Houston 139 108 0.6527 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 5 - 3
Illinois 84 63 0.6724 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 6 - 3
Indiana 96 54 0.8082 3 - 0 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 7 - 2
Iowa 84 24 0.9582 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 9 - 0
Iowa State 30 50 0.2181 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 1 0 - 1 2 - 9 2 - 7
Kansas 109 47 0.8912 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 8 - 1
Kansas State 78 72 0.5499 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 5 5 - 4
Kent State 88 108 0.3747 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 8 3 - 5
Kentucky 110 46 0.8984 3 - 0 3 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 11 - 1 7 - 1
Liberty 66 48 0.6891 1 - 1 1 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 0 8 - 4 3 - 1
Louisiana 59 73 0.3700 1 - 1 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 8 3 - 5
Louisiana Tech 84 43 0.8421 2 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 7 - 1
Louisville 65 75 0.4115 2 - 1 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 3 - 5
LSU 86 38 0.8851 3 - 0 3 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 11 - 1 7 - 1
Marshall 67 44 0.7410 2 - 0 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 3 6 - 2
Maryland 93 78 0.6082 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 5 5 - 4
Memphis 146 58 0.9095 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 1 1 - 0 11 - 0.999999999999998 7 - 1
Miami (FL) 143 57 0.9088 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 7 - 1
Miami (OH) 31 82 0.0808 0 - 3 0 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 11 1 - 7
Michigan 111 47 0.8955 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 8 - 1
Michigan State 51 47 0.5509 1 - 1 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 5 5 - 4
Middle Tennessee 75 121 0.2322 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 9 2 - 6
Minnesota 95 27 0.9587 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 0 9 - 0
Mississippi State 150 26 0.9876 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 0 8 - 0
Missouri 131 64 0.8570 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 7 - 1
Navy 114 101 0.5751 2 - 1 2 - 1 1 - 0 1 - 0 7 - 6 5 - 3
Nebraska 47 57 0.3817 0 - 2 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 7 3 - 6
Nevada 119 95 0.6372 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 5 - 3
New Mexico 118 100 0.6020 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 5 5 - 3
New Mexico State 55 179 0.0497 0 - 4 0 - 4 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 11 0 - 3
North Carolina 36 65 0.1859 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 1 - 7
North Carolina State 65 20 0.9501 2 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 1 8 - 0
North Texas 148 56 0.9191 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 7 - 1
Northern Illinois 37 66 0.1905 1 - 2 1 - 2 1 - 0 0 - 1 2 - 10 2 - 6
Northwestern 72 87 0.3839 1 - 2 1 - 2 1 - 0 0 - 1 5 - 7 3 - 6
Notre Dame 70 50 0.6987 3 - 0 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 0 - 0
Ohio 69 77 0.4319 1 - 1 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 3 - 5
Ohio State 169 62 0.9246 3 - 0 3 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 11 - 1 8 - 1
Oklahoma 149 62 0.8995 3 - 0 3 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 11 - 1 8 - 1
Oklahoma State 157 51 0.9433 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 8 - 1
Old Dominion 55 108 0.1562 0 - 3 0 - 3 0 - 2 0 - 2 2 - 10 1 - 7
Ole Miss 130 130 0.5000 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 0 6 - 6 4 - 4
Oregon 155 60 0.9147 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 8 - 1
Oregon State 114 139 0.3786 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 3 - 6
Penn State 159 54 0.9370 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 8 - 1
Pittsburgh 63 77 0.3771 2 - 1 1 - 2 1 - 0 0 - 1 5 - 7 3 - 5
Purdue 83 91 0.4427 0 - 3 1 - 2 0 - 1 0 - 1 5 - 7 4 - 5
Rice 87 116 0.3276 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 9 3 - 5
Rutgers 52 114 0.1232 1 - 2 0 - 3 0 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 11 1 - 8
San Diego State 66 66 0.5000 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 4 - 4
San Jose State 60 110 0.1801 0 - 3 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 10 1 - 7
SMU 55 133 0.0991 0 - 3 0 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 11 1 - 7
South Alabama 80 116 0.2831 1 - 2 1 - 2 1 - 0 0 - 1 3 - 9 2 - 6
South Carolina 66 56 0.6013 1 - 1 1 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 0 7 - 4 5 - 3
South Florida 108 71 0.7405 3 - 0 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 6 - 2
Southern Miss 75 28 0.9215 1 - 1 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 7 - 1
Stanford 78 23 0.9549 3 - 0 3 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 11 - 1 9 - 0
Syracuse 147 59 0.9074 3 - 0 3 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 11 - 1 7 - 1
TCU 125 59 0.8673 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 8 - 1
Temple 112 86 0.6593 2 - 2 3 - 1 1 - 0 1 - 0 8 - 4 5 - 3
Tennessee 97 43 0.8843 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 7 - 1
Texas 94 69 0.6842 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 6 - 3
Texas A&M 133 45 0.9376 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 8 - 0
Texas State 74 96 0.3428 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 1 0 - 1 4 - 8 3 - 5
Texas Tech 167 96 0.7997 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 7 - 2
Toledo 90 52 0.7976 1 - 1 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 6 - 2
Troy 103 82 0.6388 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 5 - 3
Tulane 83 71 0.5964 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 5 5 - 3
Tulsa 96 115 0.3890 1 - 3 2 - 2 0 - 1 0 - 1 5 - 7 3 - 5
UAB 107 71 0.7360 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 6 - 2
UCF 150 53 0.9309 3 - 0 3 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 10 - 1 7 - 1
UCLA 52 113 0.1256 0 - 3 0 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 10 1 - 8
ULM 65 99 0.2589 2 - 1 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 9 2 - 6
UMass 121 167 0.3088 1 - 3 1 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 8 1 - 1
UNLV 119 84 0.7049 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 6 - 2
USC 60 75 0.3640 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 1 0 - 1 4 - 8 3 - 6
Utah 65 37 0.8036 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 0 10 - 2 7 - 2
Utah State 164 63 0.9162 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 7 - 1
UTEP 34 106 0.0551 0 - 3 0 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 11 0 - 8
UTSA 44 127 0.0660 0 - 3 0 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 11 1 - 7
Vanderbilt 93 39 0.8978 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 7 - 1
Virginia 103 64 0.7667 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 6 - 2
Virginia Tech 86 20 0.9746 2 - 0 2 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 11 - 0 8 - 0
Wake Forest 108 78 0.6929 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 0 8 - 4 6 - 2
Washington 82 31 0.9192 2 - 1 3 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 11 - 1 8 - 1
Washington State 131 43 0.9419 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 8 - 1
West Virginia 92 31 0.9382 2 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 1 8 - 1
Western Kentucky 48 85 0.1933 0 - 3 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 10 2 - 6
Western Michigan 113 104 0.5517 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 5 4 - 4
Wisconsin 100 41 0.9028 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 8 - 1
Wyoming 78 102 0.3383 2 - 2 1 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 8 3 - 5