Pythagorean Expectation
Records include games against Division I opponents only.
Pythagorean Expectation uses a team's points scored and points allowed to estimate how many games the team should have won and lost to date (Pythag Record).
Good Luck is shown when a team's actual wins exceed expected wins by two or more.
Bad Luck is shown when a team's actual wins are two or less than its expected wins.
Pythag Final Record is a prediction of a team's final record based on their current Pytahgorean Expectation.
Team Points Scored Points Allowed Pythag Win Pct Pythag Record Actual Record Luck Pythag Final Record
Air Force 363 309 0.5993 7 - 5 5 - 7 -2 7 - 5
Akron 227 326 0.2881 3 - 9 4 - 8 - 3 - 9
Alabama 684 271 0.9101 14 - 1 14 - 1 - 14 - 1
Appalachian State 485 201 0.9004 12 - 1 11 - 2 - 12 - 1
Arizona 376 391 0.4756 6 - 6 5 - 7 - 6 - 6
Arizona State 389 332 0.5978 8 - 5 7 - 6 - 8 - 5
Arkansas 260 417 0.2349 3 - 9 2 - 10 - 3 - 9
Arkansas State 394 333 0.6036 8 - 5 8 - 5 - 8 - 5
Army 426 230 0.8236 11 - 2 11 - 2 - 11 - 2
Auburn 402 249 0.7681 10 - 3 8 - 5 -2 10 - 3
Ball State 290 389 0.3243 4 - 8 4 - 8 - 4 - 8
Baylor 384 412 0.4561 6 - 7 7 - 6 - 6 - 7
Boise State 460 287 0.7648 10 - 3 10 - 3 - 10 - 3
Boston College 384 308 0.6345 8 - 4 7 - 5 - 8 - 4
Bowling Green 292 480 0.2240 3 - 9 3 - 9 - 3 - 9
Buffalo 484 363 0.6724 9 - 5 10 - 4 - 9 - 5
BYU 354 278 0.6466 8 - 5 7 - 6 - 8 - 5
California 280 265 0.5344 7 - 6 7 - 6 - 7 - 6
Central Michigan 180 328 0.1824 2 - 10 1 - 11 - 2 - 10
Charlotte 260 319 0.3749 4 - 8 5 - 7 - 4 - 8
Cincinnati 454 224 0.8540 11 - 2 11 - 2 - 11 - 2
Clemson 664 197 0.9542 14 - 1 15 - 0 - 14 - 1
Coastal Carolina 320 398 0.3669 4 - 8 5 - 7 - 4 - 8
Colorado 325 327 0.4962 6 - 6 5 - 7 - 6 - 6
Colorado State 274 441 0.2333 3 - 9 3 - 9 - 3 - 9
Connecticut 266 605 0.1136 1 - 11 1 - 11 - 1 - 11
Duke 382 356 0.5439 7 - 6 8 - 5 - 7 - 6
East Carolina 273 448 0.2247 3 - 9 3 - 9 - 3 - 9
Eastern Michigan 351 287 0.6232 8 - 5 7 - 6 - 8 - 5
FAU 373 381 0.4867 6 - 6 5 - 7 - 6 - 6
FIU 450 328 0.6880 9 - 4 9 - 4 - 9 - 4
Florida 455 260 0.8020 10 - 3 10 - 3 - 10 - 3
Florida State 263 378 0.2876 3 - 9 5 - 7 +2 3 - 9
Fresno State 485 198 0.9038 13 - 1 12 - 2 - 13 - 1
Georgia 530 269 0.8449 12 - 2 11 - 3 - 12 - 2
Georgia Southern 396 280 0.7040 9 - 4 10 - 3 - 9 - 4
Georgia State 287 449 0.2462 3 - 9 2 - 10 - 3 - 9
Georgia Tech 437 381 0.5849 8 - 5 7 - 6 - 8 - 5
Hawaii 431 491 0.4193 6 - 8 8 - 6 +2 6 - 8
Houston 571 483 0.6031 8 - 5 8 - 5 - 8 - 5
Illinois 312 473 0.2611 3 - 9 4 - 8 - 3 - 9
Indiana 317 359 0.4229 5 - 7 5 - 7 - 5 - 7
Iowa 405 231 0.8028 10 - 3 9 - 4 - 10 - 3
Iowa State 348 298 0.5957 8 - 5 8 - 5 - 8 - 5
Kansas 286 360 0.3600 4 - 8 3 - 9 - 4 - 8
Kansas State 270 305 0.4244 5 - 7 5 - 7 - 5 - 7
Kent State 287 440 0.2557 3 - 9 2 - 10 - 3 - 9
Kentucky 346 219 0.7583 10 - 3 10 - 3 - 10 - 3
Liberty 399 442 0.4364 5 - 7 6 - 6 - 5 - 7
Louisiana 447 479 0.4569 6 - 8 7 - 7 - 6 - 8
Louisiana Tech 321 299 0.5443 7 - 6 8 - 5 - 7 - 6
Louisville 237 529 0.1184 1 - 11 2 - 10 - 1 - 11
LSU 421 283 0.7297 9 - 4 10 - 3 - 9 - 4
Marshall 367 284 0.6550 9 - 4 9 - 4 - 9 - 4
Maryland 342 344 0.4964 6 - 6 5 - 7 - 6 - 6
Memphis 601 447 0.6770 9 - 5 8 - 6 - 9 - 5
Miami (FL) 374 253 0.7265 9 - 4 7 - 6 -2 9 - 4
Miami (OH) 337 306 0.5600 7 - 5 6 - 6 - 7 - 5
Michigan 457 252 0.8158 11 - 2 10 - 3 - 11 - 2
Michigan State 243 223 0.5535 7 - 6 7 - 6 - 7 - 6
Middle Tennessee 392 374 0.5293 7 - 7 8 - 6 - 7 - 7
Minnesota 376 345 0.5536 7 - 6 7 - 6 - 7 - 6
Mississippi State 371 171 0.8740 11 - 2 8 - 5 -3 11 - 2
Missouri 476 331 0.7126 9 - 4 8 - 5 - 9 - 4
Navy 325 436 0.3242 4 - 9 3 - 10 - 4 - 9
Nebraska 360 375 0.4745 6 - 6 4 - 8 -2 6 - 6
Nevada 404 350 0.5887 8 - 5 8 - 5 - 8 - 5
New Mexico 319 434 0.3166 4 - 8 3 - 9 - 4 - 8
New Mexico State 303 496 0.2258 3 - 9 3 - 9 - 3 - 9
North Carolina 301 380 0.3583 4 - 7 2 - 9 -2 4 - 7
North Carolina State 440 324 0.6825 9 - 4 9 - 4 - 9 - 4
North Texas 450 314 0.7109 9 - 4 9 - 4 - 9 - 4
Northern Illinois 282 317 0.4274 6 - 8 8 - 6 +2 6 - 8
Northwestern 339 325 0.5263 7 - 7 9 - 5 +2 7 - 7
Notre Dame 408 237 0.7954 10 - 3 12 - 1 +2 10 - 3
Ohio 521 320 0.7718 10 - 3 9 - 4 - 10 - 3
Ohio State 593 357 0.7805 11 - 3 13 - 1 +2 11 - 3
Oklahoma 677 466 0.7178 10 - 4 12 - 2 +2 10 - 4
Oklahoma State 499 422 0.6032 8 - 5 7 - 6 - 8 - 5
Old Dominion 370 431 0.4058 5 - 7 4 - 8 - 5 - 7
Ole Miss 407 434 0.4599 6 - 6 5 - 7 - 6 - 6
Oregon 453 330 0.6883 9 - 4 9 - 4 - 9 - 4
Oregon State 313 548 0.1978 2 - 10 2 - 10 - 2 - 10
Penn State 439 267 0.7761 10 - 3 9 - 4 - 10 - 3
Pittsburgh 359 389 0.4500 6 - 8 7 - 7 - 6 - 8
Purdue 397 390 0.5111 7 - 6 6 - 7 - 7 - 6
Rice 246 468 0.1669 2 - 11 2 - 11 - 2 - 11
Rutgers 162 377 0.1080 1 - 11 1 - 11 - 1 - 11
San Diego State 268 288 0.4551 6 - 7 7 - 6 - 6 - 7
San Jose State 255 439 0.2046 2 - 10 1 - 11 - 2 - 10
SMU 365 423 0.4089 5 - 7 5 - 7 - 5 - 7
South Alabama 290 465 0.2350 3 - 9 3 - 9 - 3 - 9
South Carolina 391 354 0.5618 7 - 6 7 - 6 - 7 - 6
South Florida 370 416 0.4273 6 - 7 7 - 6 - 6 - 7
Southern Miss 288 218 0.6673 7 - 4 6 - 5 - 7 - 4
Stanford 369 298 0.6305 8 - 5 9 - 4 - 8 - 5
Syracuse 523 351 0.7305 9 - 4 10 - 3 - 9 - 4
TCU 306 300 0.5124 7 - 6 7 - 6 - 7 - 6
Temple 454 352 0.6539 9 - 4 8 - 5 - 9 - 4
Tennessee 273 335 0.3748 4 - 8 5 - 7 - 4 - 8
Texas 435 362 0.6128 9 - 5 10 - 4 - 9 - 5
Texas A&M 468 329 0.7070 9 - 4 9 - 4 - 9 - 4
Texas State 237 332 0.3010 4 - 8 3 - 9 - 4 - 8
Texas Tech 448 373 0.6125 7 - 5 5 - 7 -2 7 - 5
Toledo 525 397 0.6679 9 - 4 7 - 6 -2 9 - 4
Troy 399 286 0.6969 9 - 4 10 - 3 - 9 - 4
Tulane 349 358 0.4841 6 - 7 7 - 6 - 6 - 7
Tulsa 289 355 0.3742 4 - 8 3 - 9 - 4 - 8
UAB 418 238 0.8035 11 - 3 11 - 3 - 11 - 3
UCF 562 295 0.8336 11 - 2 12 - 1 - 11 - 2
UCLA 295 409 0.3064 4 - 8 3 - 9 - 4 - 8
ULM 319 381 0.3908 5 - 7 6 - 6 - 5 - 7
UMass 394 515 0.3386 4 - 8 4 - 8 - 4 - 8
UNLV 345 447 0.3435 4 - 8 4 - 8 - 4 - 8
USC 313 324 0.4784 6 - 6 5 - 7 - 6 - 6
Utah 393 272 0.7150 10 - 4 9 - 5 - 10 - 4
Utah State 618 289 0.8699 11 - 2 11 - 2 - 11 - 2
UTEP 212 393 0.1761 2 - 10 1 - 11 - 2 - 10
UTSA 170 374 0.1223 1 - 11 3 - 9 +2 1 - 11
Vanderbilt 370 346 0.5418 7 - 6 6 - 7 - 7 - 6
Virginia 370 261 0.7053 9 - 4 8 - 5 - 9 - 4
Virginia Tech 388 403 0.4763 6 - 7 6 - 7 - 6 - 7
Wake Forest 427 433 0.4913 6 - 7 7 - 6 - 6 - 7
Washington 369 229 0.7672 11 - 3 10 - 4 - 11 - 3
Washington State 488 303 0.7670 10 - 3 11 - 2 - 10 - 3
West Virginia 483 326 0.7277 9 - 3 8 - 4 - 9 - 3
Western Kentucky 253 334 0.3331 4 - 8 3 - 9 - 4 - 8
Western Michigan 416 449 0.4524 6 - 7 7 - 6 - 6 - 7
Wisconsin 386 294 0.6639 9 - 4 8 - 5 - 9 - 4
Wyoming 248 264 0.4610 6 - 6 6 - 6 - 6 - 6