Pythagorean Expectation

Records include games against Division I opponents only.

Pythagorean Expectation uses a team's points scored and points allowed to estimate how many games the team should have won and lost to date (Pythag Record).
Good Luck is shown when a team's actual wins exceed expected wins by two or more.
Bad Luck is shown when a team's actual wins are two or less than its expected wins.
Pythag Final Record is a prediction of a team's final record based on their current Pytahgorean Expectation.

Team Points Scored Points Allowed Pythag Win Pct Pythag Record Actual Record Luck Pythag Final Record
Air Force 309 255 0.6178 6 - 4 4 - 6 -2 7 - 5
Akron 190 228 0.3880 3 - 6 4 - 5 - 5 - 7
Alabama 486 127 0.9663 10 - 0 10 - 0 - 13 - -1.77635683940025e-15
Appalachian State 344 142 0.9013 8 - 1 7 - 2 - 10 - 1
Arizona 308 281 0.5571 6 - 4 5 - 5 - 7 - 5
Arizona State 299 230 0.6583 7 - 3 6 - 4 - 8 - 4
Arkansas 254 327 0.3472 3 - 7 2 - 8 - 4 - 8
Arkansas State 317 293 0.5490 5 - 5 6 - 4 - 7 - 5
Army 311 192 0.7695 8 - 2 8 - 2 - 9 - 3
Auburn 265 183 0.7162 7 - 3 6 - 4 - 9 - 3
Ball State 269 347 0.3460 4 - 7 4 - 7 - 4 - 8
Baylor 295 334 0.4230 4 - 6 5 - 5 - 5 - 7
Boise State 366 230 0.7616 8 - 2 8 - 2 - 9 - 3
Boston College 342 244 0.6993 7 - 3 7 - 3 - 8 - 4
Bowling Green 257 430 0.2164 2 - 8 2 - 8 - 3 - 9
Buffalo 379 277 0.6865 8 - 3 9 - 2 - 8 - 4
BYU 233 215 0.5501 6 - 4 5 - 5 - 7 - 5
California 227 211 0.5456 5 - 5 6 - 4 - 7 - 5
Central Michigan 167 277 0.2201 2 - 9 1 - 10 - 3 - 9
Charlotte 198 253 0.3514 4 - 6 4 - 6 - 4 - 8
Cincinnati 350 149 0.8943 9 - 1 9 - 1 - 11 - 1
Clemson 457 127 0.9609 10 - 0 10 - 0 - 12 - -1.77635683940025e-15
Coastal Carolina 275 326 0.3952 4 - 6 5 - 5 - 5 - 7
Colorado 297 264 0.5731 6 - 4 5 - 5 - 7 - 5
Colorado State 231 385 0.2181 2 - 8 3 - 7 - 3 - 9
Connecticut 238 493 0.1394 1 - 9 1 - 9 - 2 - 10
Duke 313 235 0.6718 7 - 3 7 - 3 - 8 - 4
East Carolina 209 313 0.2670 2 - 7 2 - 7 - 3 - 9
Eastern Michigan 302 244 0.6302 7 - 4 6 - 5 - 8 - 4
FAU 349 354 0.4911 5 - 6 5 - 6 - 6 - 6
FIU 348 233 0.7316 7 - 3 7 - 3 - 9 - 3
Florida 310 221 0.6997 7 - 3 7 - 3 - 8 - 4
Florida State 227 316 0.3043 3 - 7 4 - 6 - 4 - 8
Fresno State 381 135 0.9305 9 - 1 8 - 2 - 11 - 1
Georgia 370 158 0.8935 9 - 1 9 - 1 - 12 - 1
Georgia Southern 297 228 0.6595 7 - 3 7 - 3 - 8 - 4
Georgia State 256 369 0.2862 3 - 7 2 - 8 - 3 - 9
Georgia Tech 376 275 0.6861 7 - 3 6 - 4 - 8 - 4
Hawaii 351 402 0.4160 5 - 6 6 - 5 - 5 - 8
Houston 526 361 0.7193 8 - 3 8 - 3 - 9 - 3
Illinois 296 386 0.3399 3 - 7 4 - 6 - 4 - 8
Indiana 276 300 0.4481 4 - 6 5 - 5 - 5 - 7
Iowa 284 181 0.7551 8 - 2 6 - 4 -2 9 - 3
Iowa State 243 184 0.6671 6 - 3 6 - 3 - 8 - 4
Kansas 229 281 0.3748 4 - 6 3 - 7 - 4 - 8
Kansas State 211 257 0.3792 4 - 6 4 - 6 - 5 - 7
Kent State 267 412 0.2527 3 - 8 2 - 9 - 3 - 9
Kentucky 229 162 0.7038 7 - 3 7 - 3 - 8 - 4
Liberty 319 351 0.4405 4 - 5 4 - 5 - 5 - 7
Louisiana 325 342 0.4682 5 - 5 5 - 5 - 6 - 6
Louisiana Tech 255 234 0.5535 6 - 4 7 - 3 - 7 - 5
Louisville 217 421 0.1602 2 - 8 2 - 8 - 2 - 10
LSU 267 167 0.7637 8 - 2 8 - 2 - 9 - 3
Marshall 258 198 0.6596 6 - 3 6 - 3 - 7 - 4
Maryland 288 254 0.5779 6 - 4 5 - 5 - 7 - 5
Memphis 446 305 0.7211 7 - 3 6 - 4 - 9 - 3
Miami (FL) 309 201 0.7456 7 - 3 5 - 5 -2 9 - 3
Miami (OH) 295 285 0.5215 6 - 5 5 - 6 - 6 - 6
Michigan 372 129 0.9339 9 - 1 9 - 1 - 11 - 1
Michigan State 217 197 0.5601 6 - 4 6 - 4 - 7 - 5
Middle Tennessee 304 265 0.5850 6 - 4 7 - 3 - 7 - 5
Minnesota 291 296 0.4894 5 - 5 5 - 5 - 6 - 6
Mississippi State 262 135 0.8399 8 - 2 6 - 4 -2 10 - 2
Missouri 355 276 0.6523 7 - 3 6 - 4 - 8 - 4
Navy 250 361 0.2853 3 - 7 2 - 8 - 4 - 9
Nebraska 323 338 0.4717 5 - 5 3 - 7 -2 6 - 6
Nevada 338 291 0.5925 6 - 4 6 - 4 - 7 - 5
New Mexico 302 358 0.3953 4 - 6 3 - 7 - 5 - 7
New Mexico State 272 423 0.2490 2 - 8 3 - 7 - 3 - 9
North Carolina 224 320 0.2908 3 - 6 1 - 8 -2 3 - 8
North Carolina State 283 231 0.6242 6 - 3 6 - 3 - 7 - 5
North Texas 413 241 0.7936 9 - 2 8 - 3 - 10 - 2
Northern Illinois 218 223 0.4858 5 - 6 7 - 4 +2 6 - 6
Northwestern 236 230 0.5161 5 - 5 6 - 4 - 6 - 6
Notre Dame 345 187 0.8222 8 - 2 10 - 0 +2 10 - 2
Ohio 445 292 0.7414 8 - 3 7 - 4 - 9 - 3
Ohio State 406 220 0.8223 8 - 2 9 - 1 - 10 - 2
Oklahoma 490 298 0.7761 8 - 2 9 - 1 - 9 - 3
Oklahoma State 392 317 0.6297 6 - 4 5 - 5 - 8 - 4
Old Dominion 280 390 0.3040 3 - 7 3 - 7 - 4 - 8
Ole Miss 375 363 0.5203 5 - 5 5 - 5 - 6 - 6
Oregon 360 280 0.6521 7 - 3 6 - 4 - 8 - 4
Oregon State 275 451 0.2250 2 - 8 2 - 8 - 3 - 9
Penn State 357 230 0.7501 8 - 2 7 - 3 - 9 - 3
Pittsburgh 299 296 0.5063 5 - 5 6 - 4 - 6 - 6
Purdue 311 259 0.6124 6 - 4 5 - 5 - 7 - 5
Rice 209 413 0.1541 2 - 9 1 - 10 - 2 - 11
Rutgers 145 343 0.1041 1 - 9 1 - 9 - 1 - 11
San Diego State 224 207 0.5492 5 - 5 7 - 3 +2 7 - 5
San Jose State 230 387 0.2140 2 - 8 1 - 9 - 3 - 9
SMU 323 368 0.4192 4 - 6 5 - 5 - 5 - 7
South Alabama 221 389 0.1957 2 - 8 2 - 8 - 2 - 10
South Carolina 279 258 0.5488 5 - 4 5 - 4 - 7 - 5
South Florida 323 313 0.5196 5 - 5 7 - 3 +2 6 - 6
Southern Miss 228 191 0.6089 5 - 4 4 - 5 - 7 - 4
Stanford 283 230 0.6268 6 - 4 6 - 4 - 8 - 4
Syracuse 444 276 0.7665 8 - 2 8 - 2 - 9 - 3
TCU 249 260 0.4730 5 - 5 4 - 6 - 6 - 6
Temple 343 272 0.6410 6 - 4 6 - 4 - 8 - 4
Tennessee 243 247 0.4898 5 - 5 5 - 5 - 6 - 6
Texas 332 275 0.6156 6 - 4 7 - 3 - 7 - 5
Texas A&M 301 224 0.6767 7 - 3 6 - 4 - 8 - 4
Texas State 223 287 0.3473 3 - 7 3 - 7 - 4 - 8
Texas Tech 418 317 0.6663 7 - 3 5 - 5 -2 8 - 4
Toledo 442 349 0.6435 7 - 4 6 - 5 - 8 - 4
Troy 335 226 0.7279 7 - 3 8 - 2 - 9 - 3
Tulane 279 306 0.4425 5 - 6 5 - 6 - 5 - 7
Tulsa 233 294 0.3586 4 - 6 2 - 8 -2 4 - 8
UAB 331 132 0.9087 9 - 1 9 - 1 - 11 - 1
UCF 398 191 0.8624 8 - 1 9 - 0 - 9 - 2
UCLA 219 333 0.2597 3 - 7 2 - 8 - 3 - 9
ULM 274 319 0.4061 4 - 6 6 - 4 +2 5 - 7
UMass 367 449 0.3766 4 - 7 4 - 7 - 5 - 7
UNLV 283 383 0.3194 3 - 7 3 - 7 - 4 - 8
USC 269 266 0.5070 5 - 5 5 - 5 - 6 - 6
Utah 305 197 0.7489 7 - 3 7 - 3 - 9 - 3
Utah State 513 219 0.8936 9 - 1 9 - 1 - 11 - 1
UTEP 189 314 0.2194 2 - 8 1 - 9 - 3 - 9
UTSA 149 327 0.1229 1 - 9 3 - 7 +2 1 - 11
Vanderbilt 258 259 0.4976 5 - 5 4 - 6 - 6 - 6
Virginia 284 197 0.7139 7 - 3 7 - 3 - 9 - 3
Virginia Tech 268 279 0.4749 4 - 5 4 - 5 - 5 - 6
Wake Forest 318 358 0.4265 4 - 6 5 - 5 - 5 - 7
Washington 266 160 0.7809 8 - 2 7 - 3 - 9 - 3
Washington State 376 221 0.7906 8 - 2 9 - 1 - 9 - 3
West Virginia 368 188 0.8428 8 - 1 8 - 1 - 9 - 2
Western Kentucky 183 303 0.2209 2 - 8 1 - 9 - 3 - 9
Western Michigan 370 379 0.4850 5 - 6 6 - 5 - 6 - 6
Wisconsin 289 210 0.6896 7 - 3 6 - 4 - 8 - 4
Wyoming 182 234 0.3479 3 - 7 4 - 6 - 4 - 8