Pythagorean Expectation
Records include games against Division I opponents only.

Pythagorean Expectation uses a team's points scored and points allowed to estimate how many games the team should have won and lost to date.
Good Luck is shown when a team's actual wins exceed expected wins by two or more.
Bad Luck is shown when a team's actual wins are two or less than its expected wins.
  Points Pythagorean Overall Conference Predicted
Team Scored Allowed Expectation Record Pythag Luck Record Pythag Luck Record Conf Record
Air Force 320 310 0.5198 4 - 6 5 - 5 3 - 3 3 - 3 6 - 6 4 - 4
Akron 255 283 0.4353 6 - 5 5 - 6 5 - 2 3 - 4 +2 5 - 7 3 - 5
Alabama 399 112 0.9599 10 - 0 10 - 0 7 - 0 7 - 0 12 - 0 8 - 0
Appalachian State 307 239 0.6516 6 - 4 7 - 3 5 - 1 4 - 2 8 - 4 5 - 3
Arizona 444 319 0.6956 7 - 3 7 - 3 5 - 2 5 - 2 8 - 4 6 - 3
Arizona State 301 321 0.4599 5 - 5 5 - 5 4 - 3 3 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 5
Arkansas 279 358 0.3490 4 - 6 3 - 7 1 - 5 2 - 4 4 - 8 3 - 5
Arkansas State 302 180 0.7848 5 - 3 6 - 2 4 - 1 4 - 1 9 - 2 6 - 2
Army 294 186 0.7585 8 - 2 8 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Auburn 372 169 0.8779 8 - 2 9 - 1 6 - 1 6 - 1 11 - 1 7 - 1
Ball State 208 460 0.1209 2 - 9 1 - 10 0 - 7 1 - 6 1 - 11 1 - 7
Baylor 257 363 0.2966 1 - 9 3 - 7 -2 1 - 6 2 - 5 4 - 8 3 - 6
Boise State 339 231 0.7229 8 - 2 7 - 3 6 - 0 4 - 2 +2 9 - 3 6 - 2
Boston College 233 240 0.4815 5 - 5 5 - 5 3 - 4 3 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 4
Bowling Green 273 422 0.2518 2 - 9 3 - 8 2 - 5 2 - 5 3 - 9 2 - 6
Buffalo 311 274 0.5785 5 - 6 6 - 5 3 - 4 4 - 3 7 - 5 5 - 3
BYU 182 285 0.2458 3 - 8 3 - 8 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 10 0 - 0
California 292 294 0.4957 5 - 5 5 - 5 2 - 5 3 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 5
Central Michigan 325 297 0.5561 7 - 4 6 - 5 5 - 2 4 - 3 7 - 5 4 - 4
Charlotte 137 296 0.1272 1 - 9 1 - 9 1 - 5 1 - 5 2 - 10 1 - 7
Cincinnati 209 313 0.2670 3 - 7 3 - 7 1 - 5 2 - 4 3 - 9 2 - 6
Clemson 327 150 0.8753 9 - 1 9 - 1 7 - 1 7 - 1 11 - 2 7 - 1
Coastal Carolina 243 384 0.2416 1 - 9 2 - 8 0 - 6 1 - 5 3 - 9 2 - 6
Colorado 304 304 0.5000 5 - 6 6 - 5 2 - 6 4 - 4 -2 6 - 6 5 - 4
Colorado State 364 316 0.5875 6 - 5 6 - 5 4 - 3 4 - 3 7 - 5 5 - 3
Connecticut 246 394 0.2355 3 - 7 2 - 8 2 - 5 2 - 5 3 - 9 2 - 6
Duke 235 206 0.5816 4 - 6 6 - 4 -2 1 - 5 3 - 3 -2 7 - 5 5 - 3
East Carolina 238 450 0.1690 2 - 8 2 - 8 1 - 5 1 - 5 2 - 10 1 - 7
Eastern Michigan 279 249 0.5706 4 - 7 6 - 5 -2 2 - 5 4 - 3 -2 7 - 5 5 - 3
FAU 394 262 0.7350 7 - 3 7 - 3 6 - 0 4 - 2 +2 9 - 3 6 - 2
FIU 202 228 0.4249 6 - 3 4 - 5 +2 4 - 2 3 - 3 5 - 7 3 - 5
Florida 185 255 0.3095 3 - 6 3 - 6 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 8 2 - 6
Florida State 163 225 0.3088 3 - 6 3 - 6 3 - 5 2 - 6 4 - 8 2 - 6
Fresno State 292 183 0.7628 7 - 3 8 - 2 5 - 1 5 - 1 9 - 3 6 - 2
Georgia 346 145 0.8979 9 - 1 9 - 1 6 - 1 6 - 1 11 - 0.999999999999998 7 - 1
Georgia Southern 147 334 0.1139 0 - 9 1 - 8 0 - 5 1 - 4 1 - 11 1 - 7
Georgia State 197 225 0.4177 6 - 3 4 - 5 +2 5 - 1 3 - 3 +2 5 - 6 3 - 5
Georgia Tech 282 211 0.6737 5 - 4 6 - 3 4 - 3 5 - 2 7 - 4 5 - 3
Hawaii 253 339 0.3249 3 - 7 3 - 7 1 - 6 2 - 5 4 - 8 3 - 5
Houston 271 219 0.6301 6 - 3 6 - 3 4 - 2 4 - 2 7 - 4 5 - 3
Idaho 210 269 0.3500 3 - 6 3 - 6 2 - 3 2 - 3 4 - 8 3 - 5
Illinois 164 284 0.2022 2 - 8 2 - 8 0 - 7 1 - 6 2 - 10 2 - 7
Indiana 257 273 0.4623 4 - 6 5 - 5 1 - 6 3 - 4 -2 6 - 6 4 - 5
Iowa 269 201 0.6745 6 - 4 7 - 3 3 - 4 5 - 2 -2 8 - 4 6 - 3
Iowa State 317 219 0.7160 6 - 4 7 - 3 4 - 3 5 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 3
Kansas 204 422 0.1398 1 - 9 1 - 9 0 - 7 1 - 6 2 - 10 1 - 8
Kansas State 320 251 0.6473 5 - 5 6 - 4 3 - 4 5 - 2 -2 8 - 4 6 - 3
Kent State 139 397 0.0676 2 - 9 1 - 10 1 - 6 0 - 7 1 - 11 1 - 7
Kentucky 279 257 0.5512 7 - 3 6 - 4 4 - 3 4 - 3 7 - 5 4 - 4
Louisiana 253 349 0.3091 4 - 5 3 - 6 3 - 2 2 - 3 4 - 8 2 - 6
Louisiana Tech 283 293 0.4783 4 - 6 5 - 5 2 - 4 3 - 3 6 - 6 4 - 4
Louisville 368 298 0.6289 6 - 4 6 - 4 3 - 4 4 - 3 8 - 4 5 - 3
LSU 262 194 0.6794 7 - 3 7 - 3 4 - 2 4 - 2 8 - 4 5 - 3
Marshall 282 194 0.7181 7 - 3 7 - 3 4 - 2 4 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 2
Maryland 279 362 0.3427 4 - 6 3 - 7 2 - 5 2 - 5 4 - 8 3 - 6
Memphis 381 281 0.6816 8 - 1 6 - 3 +2 5 - 1 4 - 2 7 - 4 5 - 3
Miami (FL) 293 149 0.8443 9 - 0 8 - 1 6 - 0 5 - 1 10 - 2 7 - 1
Miami (OH) 265 282 0.4612 4 - 7 5 - 6 3 - 4 3 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 4
Michigan 279 164 0.7906 8 - 2 8 - 2 5 - 2 6 - 1 9 - 3 7 - 2
Michigan State 220 229 0.4750 7 - 3 5 - 5 +2 5 - 2 3 - 4 +2 6 - 6 4 - 5
Middle Tennessee 256 281 0.4420 5 - 6 5 - 6 3 - 4 3 - 4 5 - 7 4 - 4
Minnesota 265 204 0.6579 5 - 5 7 - 3 -2 2 - 5 5 - 2 -3 8 - 4 6 - 3
Mississippi State 329 193 0.7914 7 - 3 8 - 2 3 - 3 5 - 1 -2 9 - 3 6 - 2
Missouri 379 319 0.6061 5 - 5 6 - 4 2 - 4 4 - 2 -2 7 - 5 5 - 3
Navy 303 273 0.5648 6 - 3 5 - 4 4 - 3 4 - 3 7 - 5 5 - 3
Nebraska 251 325 0.3439 4 - 6 3 - 7 3 - 4 2 - 5 4 - 8 3 - 6
Nevada 292 349 0.3904 2 - 8 4 - 6 -2 2 - 4 2 - 4 5 - 7 3 - 5
New Mexico 238 347 0.2804 3 - 8 3 - 8 1 - 6 2 - 5 3 - 9 2 - 6
New Mexico State 282 292 0.4782 4 - 5 4 - 5 2 - 3 2 - 3 6 - 6 4 - 4
North Carolina 226 332 0.2766 2 - 8 3 - 7 1 - 6 2 - 5 3 - 9 2 - 6
North Carolina State 310 246 0.6406 7 - 3 6 - 4 5 - 1 4 - 2 8 - 4 5 - 3
North Texas 368 336 0.5566 7 - 3 6 - 4 6 - 1 4 - 3 +2 7 - 5 4 - 4
Northern Illinois 338 219 0.7474 8 - 3 8 - 3 6 - 1 5 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 2
Northwestern 275 231 0.6073 7 - 3 6 - 4 5 - 2 4 - 3 7 - 5 5 - 4
Notre Dame 380 207 0.8203 8 - 2 8 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 - 0
Ohio 443 278 0.7622 8 - 3 8 - 3 5 - 2 5 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 2
Ohio State 442 204 0.8736 8 - 2 9 - 1 6 - 1 6 - 1 10 - 2 8 - 1
Oklahoma 443 274 0.7687 9 - 1 8 - 2 6 - 1 5 - 2 9 - 3 7 - 2
Oklahoma State 457 299 0.7428 8 - 2 7 - 3 5 - 2 5 - 2 9 - 3 7 - 2
Old Dominion 214 318 0.2709 4 - 6 3 - 7 2 - 4 2 - 4 3 - 9 2 - 6
Ole Miss 339 356 0.4695 5 - 5 5 - 5 2 - 4 3 - 3 6 - 6 4 - 4
Oregon 323 301 0.5440 5 - 5 5 - 5 2 - 5 4 - 3 -2 7 - 5 5 - 4
Oregon State 214 407 0.1670 1 - 9 2 - 8 0 - 7 1 - 6 2 - 10 2 - 7
Penn State 377 139 0.9238 8 - 2 9 - 1 5 - 2 6 - 1 11 - 1 8 - 1
Pittsburgh 249 285 0.4164 4 - 6 4 - 6 2 - 4 2 - 4 5 - 7 3 - 5
Purdue 235 193 0.6206 4 - 6 6 - 4 -2 2 - 5 4 - 3 -2 7 - 5 6 - 3
Rice 160 375 0.1063 1 - 9 1 - 9 1 - 5 1 - 5 1 - 11 1 - 7
Rutgers 209 259 0.3691 4 - 6 4 - 6 3 - 4 3 - 4 4 - 8 3 - 6
San Diego State 288 188 0.7439 8 - 2 7 - 3 4 - 2 4 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 2
San Jose State 172 483 0.0704 1 - 10 1 - 10 0 - 6 0 - 6 1 - 12 1 - 7
SMU 396 322 0.6265 6 - 4 6 - 4 3 - 3 4 - 2 8 - 4 5 - 3
South Alabama 221 244 0.4384 4 - 6 4 - 6 3 - 3 3 - 3 5 - 7 4 - 4
South Carolina 248 206 0.6139 7 - 3 6 - 4 5 - 3 5 - 3 7 - 5 5 - 3
South Florida 379 199 0.8335 9 - 1 8 - 2 6 - 1 6 - 1 9 - 2 7 - 1
Southern Miss 272 228 0.6085 6 - 4 6 - 4 4 - 2 4 - 2 7 - 5 5 - 3
Stanford 333 214 0.7513 7 - 3 8 - 2 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 3 7 - 2
Syracuse 305 288 0.5358 4 - 6 5 - 5 2 - 4 3 - 3 6 - 6 4 - 4
TCU 342 163 0.8644 8 - 2 9 - 1 5 - 2 6 - 1 10 - 2 8 - 1
Temple 236 265 0.4281 5 - 5 4 - 6 3 - 3 3 - 3 5 - 7 3 - 5
Tennessee 204 277 0.3176 4 - 6 3 - 7 0 - 6 2 - 4 -2 4 - 8 3 - 5
Texas 299 219 0.6853 5 - 5 7 - 3 -2 4 - 3 5 - 2 8 - 4 6 - 3
Texas A&M 321 275 0.5955 6 - 4 6 - 4 3 - 3 4 - 2 7 - 5 5 - 3
Texas State 186 311 0.2167 2 - 8 2 - 8 1 - 5 1 - 5 3 - 9 2 - 6
Texas Tech 382 331 0.5886 5 - 5 6 - 4 2 - 5 4 - 3 -2 7 - 5 5 - 4
Toledo 427 295 0.7160 9 - 2 8 - 3 6 - 1 5 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 2
Troy 266 176 0.7374 8 - 2 7 - 3 5 - 1 4 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 2
Tulane 272 292 0.4558 4 - 6 5 - 5 2 - 4 3 - 3 5 - 7 4 - 4
Tulsa 330 407 0.3718 2 - 9 4 - 7 -2 1 - 6 3 - 4 -2 4 - 8 3 - 5
UAB 320 249 0.6518 7 - 3 7 - 3 5 - 2 5 - 2 8 - 4 5 - 3
UCF 437 186 0.8943 9 - 0 8 - 1 6 - 0 5 - 1 10 - 1 7 - 1
UCLA 352 386 0.4426 5 - 5 4 - 6 3 - 4 3 - 4 5 - 7 4 - 5
ULM 333 341 0.4852 4 - 5 4 - 5 4 - 3 3 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 4
UMass 306 309 0.4939 3 - 7 5 - 5 -2 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 0 - 0
UNLV 330 358 0.4493 5 - 6 5 - 6 4 - 3 3 - 4 5 - 7 4 - 4
USC 390 291 0.6753 9 - 2 7 - 4 +2 7 - 1 5 - 3 +2 8 - 4 6 - 3
Utah 290 241 0.6137 5 - 5 6 - 4 2 - 5 4 - 3 -2 7 - 5 6 - 3
Utah State 299 286 0.5278 5 - 5 5 - 5 3 - 3 3 - 3 6 - 6 4 - 4
UTEP 113 371 0.0487 0 - 10 0 - 10 0 - 6 0 - 6 1 - 11 0 - 8
UTSA 244 160 0.7417 5 - 4 7 - 2 -2 2 - 4 4 - 2 -2 8 - 3 6 - 2
Vanderbilt 236 307 0.3413 4 - 6 3 - 7 0 - 6 2 - 4 -2 4 - 8 3 - 5
Virginia 258 266 0.4809 6 - 4 5 - 5 3 - 3 3 - 3 6 - 6 4 - 4
Virginia Tech 315 148 0.8686 7 - 3 9 - 1 -2 3 - 3 5 - 1 -2 10 - 2 7 - 1
Wake Forest 351 261 0.6771 6 - 4 7 - 3 3 - 3 4 - 2 8 - 4 5 - 3
Washington 369 130 0.9314 8 - 2 9 - 1 5 - 2 7 - 0 -2 11 - 1 8 - 1
Washington State 363 252 0.7135 9 - 2 8 - 3 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 3
West Virginia 390 292 0.6734 7 - 3 7 - 3 5 - 2 5 - 2 8 - 4 6 - 3
Western Kentucky 297 281 0.5346 6 - 5 6 - 5 4 - 3 4 - 3 6 - 6 4 - 4
Western Michigan 397 311 0.6480 6 - 5 7 - 4 4 - 3 5 - 2 8 - 4 5 - 3
Wisconsin 363 134 0.9235 10 - 0 9 - 1 7 - 0 6 - 1 11 - 1 8 - 1
Wyoming 244 181 0.6785 7 - 3 7 - 3 5 - 1 4 - 2 8 - 4 5 - 3