Pythagorean Expectation
Records include games against Division I opponents only.

Pythagorean Expectation uses a team's points scored and points allowed to estimate how many games the team should have won and lost to date.
Good Luck is shown when a team's actual wins exceed expected wins by two or more.
Bad Luck is shown when a team's actual wins are two or less than its expected wins.
  Points Pythagorean Overall Conference Predicted
Team Scored Allowed Expectation Record Pythag Luck Record Pythag Luck Record Conf Record
Air Force 75 29 0.9149 1 - 1 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Akron 66 96 0.2816 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 9 0 - 0
Alabama 106 40 0.9196 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Appalachian State 84 51 0.7769 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Arizona 141 59 0.8983 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Arizona State 102 113 0.4363 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 0 - 0
Arkansas 56 35 0.7640 1 - 1 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Arkansas State 84 46 0.8184 1 - 1 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 2 0 - 0
Army 92 61 0.7364 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Auburn 71 31 0.8881 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Ball State 100 68 0.7240 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Baylor 75 99 0.3331 0 - 3 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 8 0 - 0
Boise State 96 74 0.6572 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 0 - 0
Boston College 53 103 0.1596 1 - 2 0 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 10 0 - 0
Bowling Green 44 119 0.0768 0 - 3 0 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 11 0 - 0
Buffalo 57 48 0.6058 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 5 0 - 0
BYU 39 92 0.1047 1 - 3 0 - 4 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 12 0 - 0
California 95 66 0.7131 3 - 0 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Central Michigan 92 95 0.4800 2 - 1 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 0 - 0
Charlotte 45 114 0.0892 0 - 3 0 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 11 0 - 0
Cincinnati 61 67 0.4416 2 - 1 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 0 - 0
Clemson 117 30 0.9678 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 0 0 - 0
Coastal Carolina 61 58 0.5315 1 - 1 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 0 - 0
Colorado 95 27 0.9587 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 0 0 - 0
Colorado State 122 95 0.6514 2 - 2 3 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 0 - 0
Connecticut 45 58 0.3465 1 - 1 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 7 0 - 0
Duke 135 44 0.9428 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
East Carolina 51 154 0.0594 0 - 3 0 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 11 0 - 0
Eastern Michigan 40 20 0.8498 2 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 - 0
FAU 78 73 0.5413 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 0 - 0
FIU 34 71 0.1370 1 - 1 0 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 9 0 - 0
Florida 43 53 0.3722 1 - 1 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 7 0 - 0
Florida State 7 24 0.0439 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 11 0 - 0
Fresno State 92 89 0.5207 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 0 - 0
Georgia 93 43 0.8731 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 - 0
Georgia Southern 19 63 0.0476 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 11 0 - 0
Georgia State 10 73 0.0069 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 12 0 - 0
Georgia Tech 78 52 0.7337 1 - 1 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 3 0 - 0
Hawaii 102 109 0.4586 2 - 1 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 0 - 0
Houston 57 19 0.9397 2 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Idaho 72 87 0.3839 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 0 - 0
Illinois 67 75 0.4300 2 - 1 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 0 - 0
Indiana 55 66 0.3880 1 - 1 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 7 0 - 0
Iowa 99 58 0.7919 3 - 0 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 - 0
Iowa State 124 82 0.7377 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Kansas 95 103 0.4496 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 0 - 0
Kansas State 117 40 0.9360 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Kent State 41 108 0.0816 1 - 2 0 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 11 0 - 0
Kentucky 74 46 0.7665 3 - 0 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Louisiana 114 159 0.3033 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 8 0 - 0
Louisiana Tech 96 103 0.4561 2 - 1 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 0 - 0
Louisville 103 110 0.4590 2 - 1 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 0 - 0
LSU 79 47 0.7855 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Marshall 72 63 0.5827 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 5 0 - 0
Maryland 114 58 0.8441 2 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 - 0
Memphis 85 74 0.5858 2 - 0 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 5 0 - 0
Miami (FL) 41 13 0.9464 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 1 0 - 0
Miami (OH) 74 62 0.6088 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 5 0 - 0
Michigan 98 44 0.8810 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Michigan State 63 24 0.9178 2 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Middle Tennessee 39 85 0.1248 1 - 2 0 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 11 0 - 0
Minnesota 99 24 0.9719 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 0 0 - 0
Mississippi State 143 28 0.9833 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 0 0 - 0
Missouri 88 109 0.3693 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 8 0 - 0
Navy 65 40 0.7710 2 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Nebraska 95 99 0.4742 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 0 - 0
Nevada 72 98 0.3163 0 - 3 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 8 0 - 0
New Mexico 80 72 0.5655 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 5 0 - 0
New Mexico State 85 92 0.4507 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 0 - 0
North Carolina 118 105 0.5724 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 5 0 - 0
North Carolina State 114 71 0.7656 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
North Texas 105 99 0.5367 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 0 - 0
Northern Illinois 79 50 0.7583 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Northwestern 97 68 0.7085 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Notre Dame 117 56 0.8632 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 - 0
Ohio 122 74 0.7773 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Ohio State 103 59 0.8011 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 - 0
Oklahoma 143 37 0.9671 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 0 0 - 0
Oklahoma State 162 52 0.9448 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Old Dominion 71 77 0.4495 2 - 1 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 0 - 0
Ole Miss 108 77 0.6997 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 0 - 0
Oregon 168 69 0.9024 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Oregon State 99 190 0.1639 1 - 3 1 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 10 0 - 0
Penn State 141 14 0.9969 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 0 0 - 0
Pittsburgh 63 113 0.1884 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 10 0 - 0
Purdue 107 59 0.8158 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 - 0
Rice 41 114 0.0720 1 - 2 0 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 11 0 - 0
Rutgers 92 46 0.8498 1 - 2 3 - 0 -2 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 - 0
San Diego State 88 54 0.7722 3 - 0 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
San Jose State 72 165 0.1117 1 - 3 0 - 4 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 12 0 - 0
SMU 148 102 0.7172 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
South Alabama 79 91 0.4125 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 0 - 0
South Carolina 79 64 0.6286 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 0 - 0
South Florida 120 62 0.8390 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 2 0 - 0
Southern Miss 90 41 0.8771 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Stanford 103 69 0.7314 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Syracuse 114 54 0.8662 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 - 0
TCU 147 43 0.9558 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Temple 61 83 0.3165 2 - 1 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 8 0 - 0
Tennessee 104 74 0.7007 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 0 - 0
Texas 121 78 0.7498 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Texas A&M 113 80 0.7034 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 0 - 0
Texas State 36 68 0.1694 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 10 0 - 0
Texas Tech 108 55 0.8438 2 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 - 0
Toledo 138 88 0.7549 3 - 0 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Troy 74 55 0.6774 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 0 - 0
Tulane 78 93 0.3918 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 0 - 0
Tulsa 141 155 0.4411 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 7 0 - 0
UAB 99 81 0.6229 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 5 0 - 0
UCF 61 17 0.9606 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 0 0 - 0
UCLA 146 115 0.6449 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 0 - 0
ULM 46 65 0.2964 0 - 2 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 8 0 - 0
UMass 91 122 0.3246 0 - 4 1 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 8 0 - 0
UNLV 84 59 0.7075 1 - 1 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 0 - 0
USC 118 79 0.7317 3 - 0 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 3 0 - 0
Utah 110 45 0.9033 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Utah State 71 118 0.2193 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 9 0 - 0
UTEP 37 150 0.0293 0 - 3 0 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 12 0 - 0
UTSA 68 27 0.9096 2 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Vanderbilt 84 13 0.9907 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 0 0 - 0
Virginia 83 62 0.6746 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 0 - 0
Virginia Tech 122 41 0.9386 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 - 0
Wake Forest 131 27 0.9811 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 0 0 - 0
Washington 141 37 0.9659 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 0 0 - 0
Washington State 130 67 0.8398 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 - 0
West Virginia 139 67 0.8611 2 - 1 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 - 0
Western Kentucky 60 60 0.5000 1 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 0 - 0
Western Michigan 82 105 0.3502 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 8 0 - 0
Wisconsin 130 30 0.9751 3 - 0 3 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 0 0 - 0
Wyoming 43 73 0.2103 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 9 0 - 0