Pythagorean Expectation
Records include games against Division I opponents only.
Pythagorean Expectation uses a team's points scored and points allowed to estimate how many games the team should have won and lost to date.
Good Luck is shown when a team's actual wins exceed expected wins by two or more.
Bad Luck is shown when a team's actual wins are two or less than its expected wins.
  Points Pythagorean Overall Conference Predicted
Team Scored Allowed Expectation Record Pythag Luck Record Pythag Luck Record Conf Record
Air Force 377 389 0.4804 5 - 7 6 - 6 4 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 4
Akron 310 392 0.3574 7 - 7 5 - 9 +2 6 - 2 3 - 5 +3 5 - 9 3 - 5
Alabama 519 167 0.9445 13 - 1 13 - 1 7 - 1 8 - 0 13 - 1 8 - 0
Appalachian State 435 263 0.7787 9 - 4 10 - 3 7 - 1 6 - 2 10 - 3 6 - 2
Arizona 537 447 0.6127 7 - 6 8 - 5 5 - 4 6 - 3 8 - 5 6 - 3
Arizona State 414 427 0.4807 7 - 6 6 - 7 6 - 3 4 - 5 +2 6 - 7 4 - 5
Arkansas 345 434 0.3604 4 - 8 4 - 8 1 - 7 3 - 5 -2 4 - 8 3 - 5
Arkansas State 454 309 0.7235 7 - 5 9 - 3 -2 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 2
Army 399 286 0.6969 10 - 3 9 - 4 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 4 0 - 0
Auburn 474 259 0.8192 10 - 4 11 - 3 7 - 1 7 - 1 11 - 3 7 - 1
Ball State 215 488 0.1141 2 - 10 1 - 11 0 - 8 1 - 7 1 - 11 1 - 7
Baylor 292 431 0.2742 1 - 11 3 - 9 -2 1 - 8 2 - 7 3 - 9 2 - 7
Boise State 455 320 0.7068 11 - 3 10 - 4 7 - 1 6 - 2 10 - 4 6 - 2
Boston College 334 297 0.5729 7 - 6 7 - 6 4 - 4 5 - 3 7 - 6 5 - 3
Bowling Green 304 456 0.2663 2 - 10 3 - 9 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Buffalo 342 298 0.5852 6 - 6 7 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3 7 - 5 5 - 3
BYU 222 321 0.2846 4 - 9 4 - 9 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 9 0 - 0
California 333 341 0.4852 5 - 7 6 - 6 2 - 7 4 - 5 -2 6 - 6 4 - 5
Central Michigan 370 358 0.5206 8 - 5 7 - 6 6 - 2 4 - 4 +2 7 - 6 4 - 4
Charlotte 170 393 0.1096 1 - 11 1 - 11 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 11 1 - 7
Cincinnati 251 382 0.2592 4 - 8 3 - 9 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Clemson 466 190 0.9040 12 - 2 13 - 1 7 - 1 7 - 1 13 - 1 7 - 1
Coastal Carolina 284 408 0.2879 3 - 9 3 - 9 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Colorado 317 338 0.4600 5 - 7 6 - 6 2 - 7 4 - 5 -2 6 - 6 4 - 5
Colorado State 434 361 0.6131 7 - 6 8 - 5 5 - 3 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Connecticut 283 455 0.2338 3 - 9 3 - 9 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Duke 345 263 0.6634 7 - 6 9 - 4 -2 3 - 5 5 - 3 -2 9 - 4 5 - 3
East Carolina 299 540 0.1858 3 - 9 2 - 10 2 - 6 1 - 7 2 - 10 1 - 7
Eastern Michigan 313 280 0.5692 5 - 7 7 - 5 -2 3 - 5 5 - 3 -2 7 - 5 5 - 3
FAU 568 318 0.8100 11 - 3 11 - 3 8 - 0 6 - 2 +2 11 - 3 6 - 2
FIU 333 370 0.4345 8 - 5 6 - 7 +2 5 - 3 3 - 5 +2 6 - 7 3 - 5
Florida 243 300 0.3713 4 - 7 4 - 7 3 - 5 3 - 5 4 - 7 3 - 5
Florida State 362 276 0.6633 7 - 6 9 - 4 -2 3 - 5 5 - 3 -2 9 - 4 5 - 3
Fresno State 380 251 0.7382 10 - 4 10 - 4 7 - 1 6 - 2 10 - 4 6 - 2
Georgia 531 246 0.8725 13 - 2 13 - 2 7 - 1 7 - 1 13 - 2 7 - 1
Georgia Southern 250 386 0.2524 2 - 10 3 - 9 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Georgia State 244 297 0.3796 7 - 5 5 - 7 +2 5 - 3 3 - 5 +2 5 - 7 3 - 5
Georgia Tech 309 292 0.5353 5 - 6 6 - 5 4 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 5 4 - 4
Hawaii 273 407 0.2693 3 - 9 3 - 9 1 - 7 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Houston 339 286 0.6047 7 - 5 7 - 5 5 - 3 5 - 3 7 - 5 5 - 3
Idaho 251 309 0.3729 4 - 8 4 - 8 3 - 5 3 - 5 4 - 8 3 - 5
Illinois 185 378 0.1435 2 - 10 2 - 10 0 - 9 1 - 8 2 - 10 1 - 8
Indiana 322 304 0.5359 5 - 7 6 - 6 2 - 7 5 - 4 -3 6 - 6 5 - 4
Iowa 367 259 0.7050 8 - 5 9 - 4 4 - 5 6 - 3 -2 9 - 4 6 - 3
Iowa State 380 272 0.6976 8 - 5 9 - 4 5 - 4 6 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3
Kansas 224 521 0.1081 1 - 11 1 - 11 0 - 9 1 - 8 1 - 11 1 - 8
Kansas State 420 327 0.6515 8 - 5 8 - 5 5 - 4 6 - 3 8 - 5 6 - 3
Kent State 153 421 0.0737 2 - 10 1 - 11 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 11 1 - 7
Kentucky 332 367 0.4377 7 - 6 6 - 7 4 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
Louisiana 338 480 0.2938 5 - 7 4 - 8 4 - 4 2 - 6 +2 4 - 8 2 - 6
Louisiana Tech 396 330 0.6120 7 - 6 8 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Louisville 495 356 0.6951 8 - 5 9 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 2 -2 9 - 4 6 - 2
LSU 354 246 0.7130 9 - 4 9 - 4 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 4 6 - 2
Marshall 347 259 0.6751 8 - 5 9 - 4 4 - 4 5 - 3 9 - 4 5 - 3
Maryland 289 445 0.2537 4 - 8 3 - 9 2 - 7 2 - 7 3 - 9 2 - 7
Memphis 592 422 0.6998 10 - 3 9 - 4 7 - 1 6 - 2 9 - 4 6 - 2
Miami (FL) 378 273 0.6929 10 - 3 9 - 4 7 - 1 6 - 2 9 - 4 6 - 2
Miami (OH) 293 289 0.5086 5 - 7 6 - 6 4 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 4
Michigan 328 245 0.6747 8 - 5 9 - 4 5 - 4 6 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3
Michigan State 319 260 0.6251 10 - 3 8 - 5 +2 7 - 2 6 - 3 8 - 5 6 - 3
Middle Tennessee 332 321 0.5210 7 - 6 7 - 6 4 - 4 4 - 4 7 - 6 4 - 4
Minnesota 265 274 0.4791 5 - 7 6 - 6 2 - 7 4 - 5 -2 6 - 6 4 - 5
Mississippi State 416 272 0.7431 9 - 4 10 - 3 4 - 4 6 - 2 -2 10 - 3 6 - 2
Missouri 488 414 0.6014 7 - 6 8 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Navy 396 342 0.5906 7 - 6 8 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Nebraska 309 437 0.2960 4 - 8 4 - 8 3 - 6 3 - 6 4 - 8 3 - 6
Nevada 338 407 0.3859 3 - 9 5 - 7 -2 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 7 3 - 5
New Mexico 248 382 0.2535 3 - 9 3 - 9 1 - 7 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
New Mexico State 381 386 0.4919 7 - 6 6 - 7 4 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
North Carolina 312 375 0.3870 3 - 9 5 - 7 -2 1 - 7 3 - 5 -2 5 - 7 3 - 5
North Carolina State 419 328 0.6484 9 - 4 8 - 5 6 - 2 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
North Texas 497 490 0.5089 9 - 5 7 - 7 +2 7 - 1 4 - 4 +3 7 - 7 4 - 4
Northern Illinois 376 286 0.6646 8 - 5 9 - 4 6 - 2 5 - 3 9 - 4 5 - 3
Northwestern 380 261 0.7189 10 - 3 9 - 4 7 - 2 6 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3
Notre Dame 445 279 0.7626 10 - 3 10 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 3 0 - 0
Ohio 508 315 0.7676 9 - 4 10 - 3 5 - 3 6 - 2 10 - 3 6 - 2
Ohio State 576 266 0.8734 12 - 2 12 - 2 8 - 1 8 - 1 12 - 2 8 - 1
Oklahoma 632 379 0.7822 12 - 2 11 - 3 8 - 1 7 - 2 11 - 3 7 - 2
Oklahoma State 585 382 0.7437 10 - 3 10 - 3 6 - 3 7 - 2 10 - 3 7 - 2
Old Dominion 248 380 0.2560 5 - 7 3 - 9 +2 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Ole Miss 394 415 0.4676 6 - 6 6 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 4
Oregon 468 377 0.6319 7 - 6 8 - 5 4 - 5 6 - 3 -2 8 - 5 6 - 3
Oregon State 248 516 0.1380 1 - 11 2 - 10 0 - 9 1 - 8 2 - 10 1 - 8
Penn State 534 214 0.9077 11 - 2 12 - 1 7 - 2 8 - 1 12 - 1 8 - 1
Pittsburgh 287 319 0.4343 5 - 7 5 - 7 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 7 3 - 5
Purdue 328 267 0.6258 7 - 6 8 - 5 4 - 5 6 - 3 -2 8 - 5 6 - 3
Rice 195 429 0.1223 1 - 11 1 - 11 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 11 1 - 7
Rutgers 216 340 0.2434 4 - 8 3 - 9 3 - 6 2 - 7 3 - 9 2 - 7
San Diego State 400 263 0.7404 10 - 3 10 - 3 6 - 2 6 - 2 10 - 3 6 - 2
San Jose State 206 542 0.0818 2 - 11 1 - 12 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 12 1 - 7
SMU 492 477 0.5193 7 - 6 7 - 6 4 - 4 4 - 4 7 - 6 4 - 4
South Alabama 238 318 0.3264 4 - 8 4 - 8 3 - 5 3 - 5 4 - 8 3 - 5
South Carolina 315 269 0.5974 9 - 4 8 - 5 5 - 3 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
South Florida 459 282 0.7717 10 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 2
Southern Miss 379 318 0.6080 8 - 5 8 - 5 6 - 2 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Stanford 453 318 0.7078 9 - 5 10 - 4 7 - 2 6 - 3 10 - 4 6 - 3
Syracuse 329 386 0.4014 4 - 8 5 - 7 2 - 6 3 - 5 5 - 7 3 - 5
TCU 470 266 0.8058 11 - 3 11 - 3 7 - 2 7 - 2 11 - 3 7 - 2
Temple 326 335 0.4830 7 - 6 6 - 7 4 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
Tennessee 238 349 0.2775 4 - 8 3 - 9 0 - 8 2 - 6 -2 3 - 9 2 - 6
Texas 383 276 0.6940 7 - 6 9 - 4 -2 5 - 4 6 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3
Texas A&M 425 399 0.5394 7 - 6 7 - 6 4 - 4 4 - 4 7 - 6 4 - 4
Texas State 207 403 0.1590 2 - 10 2 - 10 1 - 7 1 - 7 2 - 10 1 - 7
Texas Tech 446 419 0.5390 6 - 7 7 - 6 3 - 6 5 - 4 -2 7 - 6 5 - 4
Toledo 509 367 0.6938 11 - 3 10 - 4 7 - 1 6 - 2 10 - 4 6 - 2
Troy 410 240 0.7923 11 - 2 10 - 3 7 - 1 6 - 2 10 - 3 6 - 2
Tulane 330 350 0.4633 5 - 7 6 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 4
Tulsa 352 450 0.3511 2 - 10 4 - 8 -2 1 - 7 3 - 5 -2 4 - 8 3 - 5
UAB 361 333 0.5503 8 - 5 7 - 6 6 - 2 4 - 4 +2 7 - 6 4 - 4
UCF 627 329 0.8337 13 - 0 11 - 2 +2 8 - 0 7 - 1 11 - 2 7 - 1
UCLA 422 476 0.4253 6 - 7 6 - 7 4 - 5 4 - 5 6 - 7 4 - 5
ULM 407 492 0.3836 4 - 8 5 - 7 4 - 4 3 - 5 5 - 7 3 - 5
UMass 367 382 0.4750 4 - 8 6 - 6 -2 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 0 - 0
UNLV 346 381 0.4401 5 - 7 5 - 7 4 - 4 4 - 4 5 - 7 4 - 4
USC 456 366 0.6341 11 - 3 9 - 5 +2 8 - 1 6 - 3 +2 9 - 5 6 - 3
Utah 384 301 0.6477 7 - 6 8 - 5 3 - 6 6 - 3 -3 8 - 5 6 - 3
Utah State 392 350 0.5704 6 - 7 7 - 6 4 - 4 5 - 3 7 - 6 5 - 3
UTEP 141 441 0.0546 0 - 12 1 - 11 0 - 8 0 - 8 1 - 11 0 - 8
UTSA 259 187 0.6930 6 - 5 8 - 3 -2 3 - 5 6 - 2 -3 8 - 3 6 - 2
Vanderbilt 295 376 0.3529 5 - 7 4 - 8 1 - 7 3 - 5 -2 4 - 8 3 - 5
Virginia 293 369 0.3597 6 - 7 5 - 8 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 8 3 - 5
Virginia Tech 366 192 0.8338 9 - 4 11 - 2 -2 5 - 3 7 - 1 -2 11 - 2 7 - 1
Wake Forest 459 368 0.6347 8 - 5 8 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Washington 471 209 0.8840 10 - 3 11 - 2 7 - 2 8 - 1 11 - 2 8 - 1
Washington State 394 335 0.6000 9 - 4 8 - 5 6 - 3 5 - 4 8 - 5 5 - 4
West Virginia 449 409 0.5581 7 - 6 7 - 6 5 - 4 5 - 4 7 - 6 5 - 4
Western Kentucky 331 349 0.4670 6 - 7 6 - 7 4 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
Western Michigan 407 348 0.5967 6 - 6 7 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3 7 - 5 5 - 3
Wisconsin 473 195 0.9016 13 - 1 13 - 1 9 - 0 8 - 1 13 - 1 8 - 1
Wyoming 305 228 0.6742 8 - 5 9 - 4 5 - 3 5 - 3 9 - 4 5 - 3