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Pythagorean Expectation
Records include games against Division I opponents only.

Pythagorean Expectation uses a team's points scored and points allowed to estimate how many games the team should have won and lost to date.
Good Luck is shown when a team's actual wins exceed expected wins by two or more.
Bad Luck is shown when a team's actual wins are two or less than its expected wins.
  Points Pythagorean Overall Conference Predicted
Team Scored Allowed Expectation Record Pythag Luck Record Pythag Luck Record Conf Record
Air Force 457 341 0.6752 10 - 3 9 - 4 5 - 3 5 - 3 9 - 4 5 - 3
Akron 329 403 0.3759 5 - 7 5 - 7 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 7 3 - 5
Alabama 582 195 0.9390 14 - 1 14 - 1 8 - 0 8 - 0 14 - 1 8 - 0
Appalachian State 380 232 0.7744 10 - 3 10 - 3 7 - 1 6 - 2 10 - 3 6 - 2
Arizona 297 460 0.2509 3 - 9 3 - 9 1 - 8 2 - 7 3 - 9 2 - 7
Arizona State 400 478 0.3905 5 - 7 5 - 7 2 - 7 4 - 5 -2 5 - 7 4 - 5
Arkansas 394 404 0.4843 7 - 6 6 - 7 3 - 5 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
Arkansas State 355 279 0.6462 8 - 5 8 - 5 7 - 1 5 - 3 +2 8 - 5 5 - 3
Army 389 258 0.7362 8 - 5 10 - 3 -2 0 - 1 1 - 0 10 - 3 1 - 0
Auburn 406 222 0.8189 8 - 5 11 - 2 -3 5 - 3 7 - 1 -2 11 - 2 7 - 1
Ball State 324 361 0.4328 4 - 8 5 - 7 1 - 7 3 - 5 -2 5 - 7 3 - 5
Baylor 450 377 0.6089 7 - 6 8 - 5 3 - 6 5 - 4 -2 8 - 5 5 - 4
Boise State 439 303 0.7164 10 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 4 6 - 2
Boston College 265 325 0.3751 7 - 6 5 - 8 +2 2 - 6 3 - 5 5 - 8 3 - 5
Bowling Green 298 460 0.2525 4 - 8 3 - 9 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Buffalo 198 388 0.1569 2 - 10 2 - 10 1 - 7 1 - 7 2 - 10 1 - 7
BYU 384 254 0.7375 9 - 4 10 - 3 1 - 0 1 - 0 10 - 3 1 - 0
California 445 511 0.4144 5 - 7 5 - 7 3 - 6 4 - 5 5 - 7 4 - 5
Central Michigan 342 394 0.4124 6 - 7 5 - 8 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 8 3 - 5
Charlotte 302 415 0.3112 4 - 8 4 - 8 3 - 5 2 - 6 4 - 8 2 - 6
Cincinnati 232 323 0.3042 4 - 8 4 - 8 1 - 7 2 - 6 4 - 8 2 - 6
Clemson 588 270 0.8750 14 - 1 13 - 2 7 - 1 7 - 1 13 - 2 7 - 1
Colorado 435 304 0.7101 10 - 4 10 - 4 8 - 1 6 - 3 +2 10 - 4 6 - 3
Colorado State 459 395 0.5928 7 - 6 8 - 5 5 - 3 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Connecticut 178 337 0.1686 3 - 9 2 - 10 1 - 7 1 - 7 2 - 10 1 - 7
Duke 280 338 0.3845 4 - 8 5 - 7 1 - 7 3 - 5 -2 5 - 7 3 - 5
East Carolina 324 433 0.3263 3 - 9 4 - 8 1 - 7 3 - 5 -2 4 - 8 3 - 5
Eastern Michigan 385 388 0.4951 7 - 6 6 - 7 4 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
FIU 288 418 0.2827 4 - 8 3 - 9 4 - 4 2 - 6 +2 3 - 9 2 - 6
Florida 311 218 0.7085 9 - 4 9 - 4 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 4 6 - 2
Florida Atlantic 317 477 0.2647 3 - 9 3 - 9 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Florida State 456 325 0.6999 10 - 3 9 - 4 5 - 3 6 - 2 9 - 4 6 - 2
Fresno State 212 371 0.1980 1 - 11 2 - 10 0 - 8 2 - 6 -2 2 - 10 2 - 6
Georgia 319 312 0.5139 8 - 5 7 - 6 4 - 4 4 - 4 7 - 6 4 - 4
Georgia Southern 319 318 0.5020 5 - 7 6 - 6 4 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 4
Georgia State 239 319 0.3270 3 - 9 4 - 8 2 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 8 3 - 5
Georgia Tech 367 318 0.5886 9 - 4 8 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Hawaii 396 522 0.3339 7 - 7 5 - 9 +2 4 - 4 3 - 5 5 - 9 3 - 5
Houston 466 305 0.7426 9 - 4 10 - 3 5 - 3 6 - 2 10 - 3 6 - 2
Idaho 400 407 0.4892 9 - 4 6 - 7 +3 6 - 2 4 - 4 +2 6 - 7 4 - 4
Illinois 236 383 0.2296 3 - 9 3 - 9 2 - 7 2 - 7 3 - 9 2 - 7
Indiana 335 354 0.4656 6 - 7 6 - 7 4 - 5 4 - 5 6 - 7 4 - 5
Iowa 324 245 0.6679 8 - 5 9 - 4 6 - 3 6 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3
Iowa State 332 376 0.4228 3 - 9 5 - 7 -2 2 - 7 4 - 5 -2 5 - 7 4 - 5
Kansas 243 448 0.1781 2 - 10 2 - 10 1 - 8 2 - 7 2 - 10 2 - 7
Kansas State 419 290 0.7150 9 - 4 9 - 4 6 - 3 6 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3
Kent State 247 344 0.3040 3 - 9 4 - 8 2 - 6 2 - 6 4 - 8 2 - 6
Kentucky 390 407 0.4734 7 - 6 6 - 7 4 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
Louisiana Tech 620 470 0.6665 9 - 5 9 - 5 6 - 2 5 - 3 9 - 5 5 - 3
Louisiana-Lafayette 307 329 0.4569 6 - 7 6 - 7 5 - 3 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
Louisville 553 309 0.8108 9 - 4 11 - 2 -2 7 - 1 6 - 2 11 - 2 6 - 2
LSU 340 189 0.8128 8 - 4 10 - 2 -2 5 - 3 7 - 1 -2 10 - 2 7 - 1
Marshall 317 423 0.3271 3 - 9 4 - 8 2 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 8 3 - 5
Maryland 335 384 0.4155 6 - 7 5 - 8 3 - 6 4 - 5 5 - 8 4 - 5
Massachusetts 280 426 0.2594 2 - 10 3 - 9 0 - 1 0 - 1 3 - 9 0 - 1
Memphis 505 375 0.6779 8 - 5 9 - 4 5 - 3 5 - 3 9 - 4 5 - 3
Miami (FL) 446 241 0.8233 9 - 4 11 - 2 -2 5 - 3 7 - 1 -2 11 - 2 7 - 1
Miami (OH) 297 309 0.4753 6 - 7 6 - 7 6 - 2 4 - 4 +2 6 - 7 4 - 4
Michigan 524 183 0.9328 10 - 3 12 - 1 -2 7 - 2 8 - 1 12 - 1 8 - 1
Michigan State 289 333 0.4123 3 - 9 5 - 7 -2 1 - 8 4 - 5 -3 5 - 7 4 - 5
Middle Tennessee 516 465 0.5647 8 - 5 7 - 6 5 - 3 5 - 3 7 - 6 5 - 3
Minnesota 381 287 0.6700 9 - 4 9 - 4 5 - 4 6 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3
Mississippi State 395 413 0.4722 6 - 7 6 - 7 3 - 5 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
Missouri 377 378 0.4983 4 - 8 6 - 6 -2 2 - 6 4 - 4 -2 6 - 6 4 - 4
Navy 531 434 0.6235 9 - 5 9 - 5 7 - 1 5 - 3 +2 9 - 5 5 - 3
Nebraska 345 311 0.5645 9 - 4 7 - 6 +2 6 - 3 5 - 4 7 - 6 5 - 4
Nevada 305 348 0.4183 5 - 7 5 - 7 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 7 3 - 5
New Mexico 477 409 0.5950 9 - 4 8 - 5 6 - 2 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
New Mexico State 298 466 0.2464 3 - 9 3 - 9 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
North Carolina 420 324 0.6567 8 - 5 9 - 4 5 - 3 5 - 3 9 - 4 5 - 3
North Carolina State 351 296 0.6049 7 - 6 8 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 3 -2 8 - 5 5 - 3
North Texas 322 424 0.3345 5 - 8 4 - 9 3 - 5 3 - 5 4 - 9 3 - 5
Northern Illinois 366 364 0.5034 5 - 7 6 - 6 5 - 3 4 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 4
Northwestern 338 289 0.5967 7 - 6 8 - 5 5 - 4 5 - 4 8 - 5 5 - 4
Notre Dame 371 334 0.5653 4 - 8 7 - 5 -3 1 - 0 1 - 0 7 - 5 1 - 0
Ohio 368 317 0.5922 8 - 6 8 - 6 6 - 2 5 - 3 8 - 6 5 - 3
Ohio State 512 201 0.9119 11 - 2 12 - 1 8 - 1 8 - 1 12 - 1 8 - 1
Oklahoma 571 375 0.7410 11 - 2 10 - 3 9 - 0 7 - 2 +2 10 - 3 7 - 2
Oklahoma State 502 345 0.7186 10 - 3 9 - 4 7 - 2 6 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3
Old Dominion 456 354 0.6532 10 - 3 8 - 5 +2 7 - 1 5 - 3 +2 8 - 5 5 - 3
Ole Miss 391 408 0.4734 5 - 7 6 - 6 2 - 6 4 - 4 -2 6 - 6 4 - 4
Oregon 425 497 0.4034 4 - 8 5 - 7 2 - 7 4 - 5 -2 5 - 7 4 - 5
Oregon State 314 366 0.4054 4 - 8 5 - 7 3 - 6 4 - 5 5 - 7 4 - 5
Penn State 526 356 0.7263 11 - 3 10 - 4 8 - 1 7 - 2 10 - 4 7 - 2
Pittsburgh 532 458 0.5925 8 - 5 8 - 5 5 - 3 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Purdue 295 459 0.2488 3 - 9 3 - 9 1 - 8 2 - 7 3 - 9 2 - 7
Rice 303 448 0.2734 3 - 9 3 - 9 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Rutgers 188 450 0.1014 2 - 10 1 - 11 0 - 9 1 - 8 1 - 11 1 - 8
San Diego State 493 283 0.8002 11 - 3 11 - 3 6 - 2 6 - 2 11 - 3 6 - 2
San Jose State 293 416 0.2939 4 - 8 4 - 8 3 - 5 2 - 6 4 - 8 2 - 6
SMU 332 435 0.3373 5 - 7 4 - 8 3 - 5 3 - 5 4 - 8 3 - 5
South Alabama 330 351 0.4615 6 - 7 6 - 7 2 - 6 4 - 4 -2 6 - 7 4 - 4
South Carolina 270 344 0.3531 6 - 7 5 - 8 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 8 3 - 5
South Florida 569 411 0.6928 11 - 2 9 - 4 +2 7 - 1 6 - 2 9 - 4 6 - 2
Southern Miss 427 384 0.5660 7 - 6 7 - 6 4 - 4 5 - 3 7 - 6 5 - 3
Stanford 342 265 0.6542 10 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3 6 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3
Syracuse 308 463 0.2652 4 - 8 3 - 9 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
TCU 403 364 0.5633 6 - 7 7 - 6 4 - 5 5 - 4 7 - 6 5 - 4
Temple 453 258 0.8033 10 - 4 11 - 3 7 - 1 6 - 2 11 - 3 6 - 2
Tennessee 473 375 0.6412 9 - 4 8 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Texas 383 378 0.5082 5 - 7 6 - 6 3 - 6 5 - 4 -2 6 - 6 5 - 4
Texas A&M 453 319 0.7061 8 - 5 9 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 2 -2 9 - 4 6 - 2
Texas State 223 493 0.1210 2 - 10 1 - 11 0 - 8 1 - 7 1 - 11 1 - 7
Texas Tech 524 522 0.5024 5 - 7 6 - 6 3 - 6 5 - 4 -2 6 - 6 5 - 4
Toledo 494 334 0.7268 9 - 4 9 - 4 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 4 6 - 2
Troy 438 287 0.7421 10 - 3 10 - 3 6 - 2 6 - 2 10 - 3 6 - 2
Tulane 289 332 0.4142 4 - 8 5 - 7 1 - 7 3 - 5 -2 5 - 7 3 - 5
Tulsa 552 388 0.7071 10 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 4 6 - 2
UCF 374 320 0.5962 6 - 7 8 - 5 -2 4 - 4 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
UCLA 299 330 0.4387 4 - 8 5 - 7 2 - 7 4 - 5 -2 5 - 7 4 - 5
ULM 280 469 0.2159 4 - 8 3 - 9 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
UNLV 379 441 0.4064 4 - 8 5 - 7 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 7 3 - 5
USC 447 315 0.7058 10 - 3 9 - 4 7 - 2 6 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3
Utah 388 311 0.6348 9 - 4 8 - 5 5 - 4 6 - 3 8 - 5 6 - 3
Utah State 287 352 0.3751 3 - 9 5 - 7 -2 1 - 7 3 - 5 -2 5 - 7 3 - 5
UTEP 316 419 0.3306 4 - 8 4 - 8 2 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 8 3 - 5
UTSA 379 363 0.5269 6 - 7 7 - 6 5 - 3 4 - 4 7 - 6 4 - 4
Vanderbilt 299 312 0.4734 6 - 7 6 - 7 3 - 5 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
Virginia 270 405 0.2663 2 - 10 3 - 9 1 - 7 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Virginia Tech 490 319 0.7452 10 - 4 10 - 4 6 - 2 6 - 2 10 - 4 6 - 2
Wake Forest 265 288 0.4482 7 - 6 6 - 7 3 - 5 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
Washington 585 248 0.8952 12 - 2 13 - 1 8 - 1 8 - 1 13 - 1 8 - 1
Washington State 496 343 0.7155 8 - 5 9 - 4 7 - 2 6 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3
West Virginia 405 312 0.6575 10 - 3 9 - 4 7 - 2 6 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3
Western Kentucky 637 344 0.8235 11 - 3 12 - 2 7 - 1 7 - 1 12 - 2 7 - 1
Western Michigan 582 277 0.8648 13 - 1 12 - 2 8 - 0 7 - 1 12 - 2 7 - 1
Wisconsin 397 218 0.8174 11 - 3 11 - 3 7 - 2 7 - 2 11 - 3 7 - 2
Wyoming 503 477 0.5331 8 - 6 7 - 7 6 - 2 4 - 4 +2 7 - 7 4 - 4