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Pythagorean Expectation
Records include games against Division I opponents only.
Pythagorean Expectation uses a team's points scored and points allowed to estimate how many games the team should have won and lost to date.
Good Luck is shown when a team's actual wins exceed expected wins by two or more.
Bad Luck is shown when a team's actual wins are two or less than its expected wins.
  Points Pythagorean Overall Conference Predicted
Team Scored Allowed Expectation Record Pythag Luck Record Pythag Luck Record Conf Record
Air Force 473 357 0.6689 8 - 6 9 - 5 6 - 2 5 - 3 9 - 5 5 - 3
Akron 311 279 0.5674 8 - 5 7 - 6 5 - 3 5 - 3 7 - 6 5 - 3
Alabama 526 227 0.8910 14 - 1 13 - 2 7 - 1 7 - 1 13 - 2 7 - 1
Appalachian State 477 248 0.8369 11 - 2 11 - 2 7 - 1 7 - 1 11 - 2 7 - 1
Arizona 486 465 0.5276 7 - 6 7 - 6 3 - 6 5 - 4 -2 7 - 6 5 - 4
Arizona State 450 435 0.5212 6 - 7 7 - 6 4 - 5 5 - 4 7 - 6 5 - 4
Arkansas 467 356 0.6634 8 - 5 9 - 4 5 - 3 5 - 3 9 - 4 5 - 3
Arkansas State 520 393 0.6682 9 - 4 9 - 4 8 - 0 5 - 3 +3 9 - 4 5 - 3
Army 265 334 0.3593 2 - 10 4 - 8 -2 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 8 0 - 0
Auburn 357 338 0.5341 7 - 6 7 - 6 2 - 6 4 - 4 -2 7 - 6 4 - 4
Ball State 277 430 0.2498 3 - 9 3 - 9 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Baylor 625 368 0.7899 10 - 3 10 - 3 6 - 3 7 - 2 10 - 3 7 - 2
Boise State 508 263 0.8383 9 - 4 11 - 2 -2 5 - 3 7 - 1 -2 11 - 2 7 - 1
Boston College 206 183 0.5735 3 - 9 7 - 5 -4 0 - 8 5 - 3 -5 7 - 5 5 - 3
Bowling Green 591 405 0.7201 10 - 4 10 - 4 7 - 1 6 - 2 10 - 4 6 - 2
Buffalo 320 331 0.4789 5 - 7 6 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 4
BYU 438 297 0.7254 9 - 4 9 - 4 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 4 0 - 0
California 493 399 0.6292 8 - 5 8 - 5 4 - 5 6 - 3 -2 8 - 5 6 - 3
Central Michigan 336 286 0.5994 7 - 6 8 - 5 6 - 2 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Charlotte 210 435 0.1394 2 - 10 2 - 10 0 - 8 1 - 7 2 - 10 1 - 7
Cincinnati 440 405 0.5516 7 - 6 7 - 6 4 - 4 4 - 4 7 - 6 4 - 4
Clemson 577 325 0.8077 14 - 1 12 - 3 +2 8 - 0 6 - 2 +2 12 - 3 6 - 2
Colorado 320 357 0.4320 4 - 9 6 - 7 -2 1 - 8 4 - 5 -3 6 - 7 4 - 5
Colorado State 385 354 0.5523 7 - 6 7 - 6 5 - 3 4 - 4 7 - 6 4 - 4
Connecticut 223 253 0.4218 6 - 7 5 - 8 4 - 4 3 - 5 5 - 8 3 - 5
Duke 410 330 0.6324 8 - 5 8 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
East Carolina 329 312 0.5331 5 - 7 6 - 6 3 - 5 4 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 4
Eastern Michigan 305 505 0.2209 1 - 11 3 - 9 -2 0 - 8 2 - 6 -2 3 - 9 2 - 6
FIU 306 358 0.4031 5 - 7 5 - 7 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 7 3 - 5
Florida 325 256 0.6449 10 - 4 9 - 5 7 - 1 5 - 3 +2 9 - 5 5 - 3
Florida Atlantic 270 345 0.3514 3 - 9 4 - 8 3 - 5 3 - 5 4 - 8 3 - 5
Florida State 412 227 0.8161 10 - 3 11 - 2 6 - 2 7 - 1 11 - 2 7 - 1
Fresno State 267 457 0.2069 3 - 9 2 - 10 2 - 6 2 - 6 2 - 10 2 - 6
Georgia 342 220 0.7508 10 - 3 10 - 3 5 - 3 6 - 2 10 - 3 6 - 2
Georgia Southern 474 306 0.7491 9 - 4 10 - 3 6 - 2 6 - 2 10 - 3 6 - 2
Georgia State 350 368 0.4687 6 - 7 6 - 7 5 - 3 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
Georgia Tech 351 309 0.5790 3 - 9 7 - 5 -4 1 - 7 5 - 3 -4 7 - 5 5 - 3
Hawaii 229 463 0.1468 3 - 10 2 - 11 0 - 8 1 - 7 2 - 11 1 - 7
Houston 566 290 0.8418 13 - 1 12 - 2 7 - 1 7 - 1 12 - 2 7 - 1
Idaho 364 505 0.3061 4 - 8 4 - 8 3 - 5 2 - 6 4 - 8 2 - 6
Illinois 272 279 0.4841 5 - 7 6 - 6 2 - 6 4 - 4 -2 6 - 6 4 - 4
Indiana 475 489 0.4819 6 - 7 6 - 7 2 - 6 4 - 4 -2 6 - 7 4 - 4
Iowa 433 285 0.7399 12 - 2 10 - 4 +2 8 - 0 6 - 2 +2 10 - 4 6 - 2
Iowa State 300 392 0.3388 3 - 9 4 - 8 2 - 7 3 - 6 4 - 8 3 - 6
Kansas 183 553 0.0593 0 - 12 1 - 11 0 - 9 1 - 8 1 - 11 1 - 8
Kansas State 389 409 0.4687 6 - 7 6 - 7 3 - 6 4 - 5 6 - 7 4 - 5
Kent State 157 313 0.1512 3 - 9 2 - 10 2 - 6 1 - 7 2 - 10 1 - 7
Kentucky 296 329 0.4343 5 - 7 5 - 7 2 - 6 3 - 5 5 - 7 3 - 5
Louisiana Tech 488 349 0.6981 9 - 4 9 - 4 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 4 6 - 2
Louisiana-Lafayette 317 382 0.3855 4 - 8 5 - 7 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 7 3 - 5
Louisville 373 313 0.6079 8 - 5 8 - 5 5 - 3 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
LSU 394 291 0.6808 9 - 3 8 - 4 5 - 3 5 - 3 8 - 4 5 - 3
Marshall 407 231 0.8047 10 - 3 10 - 3 6 - 2 6 - 2 10 - 3 6 - 2
Maryland 296 413 0.3031 3 - 9 4 - 8 1 - 7 2 - 6 4 - 8 2 - 6
Massachusetts 266 377 0.2949 3 - 9 4 - 8 2 - 6 2 - 6 4 - 8 2 - 6
Memphis 522 355 0.7239 9 - 4 9 - 4 5 - 3 6 - 2 9 - 4 6 - 2
Miami (FL) 361 366 0.4914 8 - 5 6 - 7 +2 5 - 3 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
Miami (OH) 215 384 0.1900 3 - 9 2 - 10 2 - 6 2 - 6 2 - 10 2 - 6
Michigan 408 213 0.8355 10 - 3 11 - 2 6 - 2 7 - 1 11 - 2 7 - 1
Michigan State 417 304 0.6879 12 - 2 10 - 4 +2 7 - 1 6 - 2 10 - 4 6 - 2
Middle Tennessee 442 346 0.6484 7 - 6 8 - 5 6 - 2 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Minnesota 292 327 0.4297 6 - 7 6 - 7 2 - 6 3 - 5 6 - 7 3 - 5
Mississippi State 447 302 0.7272 9 - 4 9 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 2 -2 9 - 4 6 - 2
Missouri 163 194 0.3929 5 - 7 5 - 7 1 - 7 3 - 5 -2 5 - 7 3 - 5
Navy 478 284 0.7861 11 - 2 10 - 3 7 - 1 6 - 2 10 - 3 6 - 2
Nebraska 427 362 0.6018 6 - 7 8 - 5 -2 3 - 5 5 - 3 -2 8 - 5 5 - 3
Nevada 341 349 0.4855 7 - 6 6 - 7 4 - 4 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
New Mexico 389 369 0.5329 7 - 6 7 - 6 5 - 3 4 - 4 7 - 6 4 - 4
New Mexico State 343 540 0.2433 3 - 9 3 - 9 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
North Carolina 570 343 0.7807 11 - 3 11 - 3 8 - 0 6 - 2 +2 11 - 3 6 - 2
North Carolina State 432 336 0.6521 7 - 6 8 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 3 -2 8 - 5 5 - 3
North Texas 182 495 0.0758 1 - 11 1 - 11 1 - 7 1 - 7 1 - 11 1 - 7
Northern Illinois 436 387 0.5740 8 - 6 8 - 6 6 - 2 5 - 3 8 - 6 5 - 3
Northwestern 254 242 0.5302 10 - 3 7 - 6 +3 6 - 2 4 - 4 +2 7 - 6 4 - 4
Notre Dame 445 313 0.7068 10 - 3 9 - 4 0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 4 0 - 0
Ohio 358 329 0.5526 8 - 5 7 - 6 5 - 3 4 - 4 7 - 6 4 - 4
Ohio State 464 196 0.8961 12 - 1 12 - 1 7 - 1 7 - 1 12 - 1 7 - 1
Oklahoma 566 286 0.8464 11 - 2 11 - 2 8 - 1 8 - 1 11 - 2 8 - 1
Oklahoma State 514 396 0.6575 10 - 3 9 - 4 7 - 2 6 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3
Old Dominion 291 429 0.2748 5 - 7 3 - 9 +2 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Ole Miss 531 294 0.8143 10 - 3 11 - 2 6 - 2 7 - 1 11 - 2 7 - 1
Oregon 559 488 0.5841 9 - 4 8 - 5 7 - 2 5 - 4 +2 8 - 5 5 - 4
Oregon State 228 444 0.1589 2 - 10 2 - 10 0 - 9 1 - 8 2 - 10 1 - 8
Penn State 301 284 0.5363 7 - 6 7 - 6 4 - 4 4 - 4 7 - 6 4 - 4
Pittsburgh 367 339 0.5494 8 - 5 7 - 6 6 - 2 4 - 4 +2 7 - 6 4 - 4
Purdue 301 438 0.2814 2 - 10 3 - 9 1 - 7 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Rice 313 430 0.3113 5 - 7 4 - 8 3 - 5 2 - 6 4 - 8 2 - 6
Rutgers 325 419 0.3464 4 - 8 4 - 8 1 - 7 3 - 5 -2 4 - 8 3 - 5
San Diego State 450 230 0.8426 11 - 3 12 - 2 8 - 0 7 - 1 12 - 2 7 - 1
San Jose State 363 354 0.5157 6 - 7 7 - 6 4 - 4 4 - 4 7 - 6 4 - 4
SMU 333 548 0.2235 2 - 10 3 - 9 1 - 7 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
South Alabama 300 447 0.2695 5 - 7 3 - 9 +2 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
South Carolina 263 330 0.3618 3 - 9 4 - 8 1 - 7 3 - 5 -2 4 - 8 3 - 5
South Florida 437 298 0.7225 8 - 5 9 - 4 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 4 6 - 2
Southern Miss 559 358 0.7529 9 - 5 11 - 3 -2 7 - 1 6 - 2 11 - 3 6 - 2
Stanford 529 316 0.7838 12 - 2 11 - 3 8 - 1 7 - 2 11 - 3 7 - 2
Syracuse 327 372 0.4201 4 - 8 5 - 7 2 - 6 3 - 5 5 - 7 3 - 5
TCU 547 354 0.7480 11 - 2 10 - 3 7 - 2 7 - 2 10 - 3 7 - 2
Temple 417 281 0.7285 10 - 4 10 - 4 7 - 1 6 - 2 10 - 4 6 - 2
Tennessee 457 260 0.8038 9 - 4 10 - 3 5 - 3 6 - 2 10 - 3 6 - 2
Texas 317 364 0.4144 5 - 7 5 - 7 4 - 5 4 - 5 5 - 7 4 - 5
Texas A&M 361 286 0.6416 8 - 5 8 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Texas State 323 470 0.2814 3 - 9 3 - 9 2 - 6 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Texas Tech 586 567 0.5206 7 - 6 7 - 6 4 - 5 5 - 4 7 - 6 5 - 4
Toledo 420 249 0.7870 10 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 2 6 - 2 9 - 3 6 - 2
Troy 335 339 0.4926 4 - 8 6 - 6 -2 3 - 5 4 - 4 6 - 6 4 - 4
Tulane 236 435 0.1782 3 - 9 2 - 10 1 - 7 1 - 7 2 - 10 1 - 7
Tulsa 483 518 0.4564 6 - 7 6 - 7 3 - 5 4 - 4 6 - 7 4 - 4
UCF 167 452 0.0766 0 - 12 1 - 11 0 - 8 1 - 7 1 - 11 1 - 7
UCLA 419 338 0.6311 8 - 5 8 - 5 5 - 4 6 - 3 8 - 5 6 - 3
ULM 273 475 0.2003 2 - 11 3 - 10 1 - 7 2 - 6 3 - 10 2 - 6
UNLV 343 404 0.3991 3 - 9 5 - 7 -2 2 - 6 3 - 5 5 - 7 3 - 5
USC 475 360 0.6666 8 - 6 9 - 5 6 - 3 6 - 3 9 - 5 6 - 3
Utah 398 290 0.6881 10 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3 6 - 3 9 - 4 6 - 3
Utah State 377 347 0.5516 6 - 7 7 - 6 5 - 3 4 - 4 7 - 6 4 - 4
UTEP 248 395 0.2380 5 - 7 3 - 9 +2 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
UTSA 271 405 0.2681 3 - 9 3 - 9 3 - 5 2 - 6 3 - 9 2 - 6
Vanderbilt 182 252 0.3071 4 - 8 4 - 8 2 - 6 2 - 6 4 - 8 2 - 6
Virginia 309 386 0.3644 4 - 8 4 - 8 3 - 5 3 - 5 4 - 8 3 - 5
Virginia Tech 403 342 0.6012 7 - 6 8 - 5 4 - 4 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Wake Forest 209 295 0.2970 3 - 9 4 - 8 1 - 7 2 - 6 4 - 8 2 - 6
Washington 398 244 0.7726 7 - 6 10 - 3 -3 4 - 5 7 - 2 -3 10 - 3 7 - 2
Washington State 409 360 0.5791 9 - 4 8 - 5 6 - 3 5 - 4 8 - 5 5 - 4
West Virginia 442 320 0.6916 8 - 5 9 - 4 4 - 5 6 - 3 -2 9 - 4 6 - 3
Western Kentucky 620 363 0.7922 12 - 2 11 - 3 8 - 0 6 - 2 +2 11 - 3 6 - 2
Western Michigan 468 368 0.6459 8 - 5 8 - 5 6 - 2 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 - 3
Wisconsin 348 178 0.8424 10 - 3 11 - 2 6 - 2 7 - 1 11 - 2 7 - 1
Wyoming 228 408 0.1893 2 - 10 2 - 10 2 - 6 2 - 6 2 - 10 2 - 6